Uneven Recovery Uptrend for ES
ES Pattern Observation: The Alfred E Newman in me (What Me Worry?) is concerned that yesterday's post-market up-spike on arguably the best news yet, concerning an end to the war, was a bit anti-climactic.
By that I am referring to the magnitude of the upside pop-- about 72 points (shown by the bright blue oval on my attached chart), compared to this past Monday AM's pop from around 6508 to 6748, or 240 points (shown by the dark blue oval). Monday's pre-market "good news announcement" about a possible peace deal dwarfed yesterday afternoon's "even better news announcement" about a peace deal AND a possible cease-fire.
Granted, ES responded violently on the upside to yesterday's news, but to my mind, the reaction so far has been disappointing-- i.e, lack of upside follow-through above 6680/82 in anticipation of a peace deal by Friday afternoon's close becoming more likely than a resumption of bombings and missile attacks on critical infrastructure.
This observation, overlaid on my bullish Three Indicator Conditions setup, which argues strongly that a much bigger counter-trend rally is approaching, serves only to warn me that ES continues to be subject to an uneven recovery uptrend pattern that remains subject to fits and false starts before a sustained, constant bid reenters the markets-- perhaps closer to Friday's deadline AND end-of-Q1 institutional position adjustments...
Bottom Line: As long as any forthcoming intraday weakness is contained above 6635, the bulls are in charge of near-term direction... eyeing a challenge of and upside breakout above 6681.50... Last is 6664.75...
