Unfinished Business On The Downside

Good Tuesday Morning, MPtraders! March 11, 2025-- Pre-Market Update: Lotsa green on the pre-market stock boards this AM. Is the worst behind us? Perhaps a key to whether or not indices and stocks CLOSE in the green today will depend on news or leaks from Trump's meeting with CEOs at the Business Roundtable in the White House this afternoon. Will the CEOs successfully impress upon POTUS that his tariff "policy" is causing them intense odgita unless he provides some clarity? 

In any case, based on my technical set up work, Administration jawboning of markets to the upside will represent a sell-the-news condition until a bout of strength inflicts damage to the dominant downtrend patterns. At the moment, my technical and seasonal biases argue that there is still unfinished business on the downside after a brief period of relief, measured either in terms of price or time, or both.

In other words, the vast majority of long side opportunities within an oversold condition should be considered short-term scalps, not buy-and-hold opportunities for the time being...

From the perspective of my Big Picture ES chart work (see attached), my final comment late yesterday was this:

My preferred scenario at the moment is for ES to press to another new corrective low overnight or tomorrow, closer to 5530 that will attract strong buying interest that propels ES to 5740/80 in a trade-able counter-trend rally effort... Last is 5620...

In overnight trading, ES did in fact press to an undercut new corrective low at 5558 (versus yest's low at 5571.50), from where it has bounced as high as 565175 in pre-market trading. My granular intraday pattern analysis argues that the 5555-5585 support window should contain forthcoming weakness within a rest-recovery rally period that points to an upper boundary zone in the vicinity of 5680 to 5725, from where ES will be vulnerable to the initiation of a new downleg that projects closer to the 5425 target window...Last is 5619...

As for the QQQ, it too is in the grasp of a recovery bounce off of yest's low at 467.77-- down 13.5% from its ATH at 540.95 hit on 2/18/25 after slicing beneath its major multi-YEAR up trendline in the vicinity of 486.30 that now serves as significant resistance on any meaningful bout of strength (see my attached Weekly QQQ Chart). From my granular intraday perspective, QQQ could recover into the 482 to 488 resistance window prior to my expectation of a resumption of dominant downtrend selling pressure that projects lower Big Picture targets ahead (460 down to 438)... 

Considering my cycle work has rolled over into a "headwind" position that will intensify every day into the anticipated cycle bottom in October 2025, I have to consider that QQQ has entered a sustainable Bear Phase, and as such, rallies will be used by investors and traders to exit positions or to establish hedges (short and put positions)... Last is 473.14...