Was Yesterday THE Buying Opportunity?

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  September 27, 2023-- Pre-Market Update: T-minus 3 sessions until the end of September, the end of Q3, and T-minus 4 days until the Government "runs out of money" and is forced to shut down-- all of which warns us that end-quarter portfolio mark-downs (mark-ups?) and the obligatory quarter-end window-dressing shenanigans, as well as another Friday OPEX, and the uncertainty of a Government shutdown over the weekend are facing portfolio managers, investors, and traders in the hours directly ahead. 

So, was yesterday THE buying opportunity ahead of an anticipated Q4-year-end rally? 

My work is telling me the answer to the question is "maybe," and that although there certainly was technical justification to "take a shot on the long side in and around the 200 DMA, any buying done late yesterday (in SPY Calls, for instance) should be considered a "rental position" for the time being.

My attached 15-Minute ES Chart shows that the index has NOT (yet?) tacked-on any upside follow-through to yesterday's late-session recovery rally from 4305.50 (a test of the 200 DMA) to 4336.00. Although ES weakness is contained at the up-sloping 200 DMA (see my Daily ES Chart below) and the post-October 2022 up trendline (4297), the magnitude and strength exhibited by the upmove off of such a powerful and consequential support zone leaves much to be desired (to me, anyway), and serves as a cautionary note as we enter today's session. 

The inability of ES to climb above yest's late-session high at 4336.00 and to chew through resistance up to 4345 where it will be poised to gain considerably stronger upside traction toward 4362/67, will argue that the lukewarm buyers likely will succumb to another bout of intense weakness that RETESTS the all-important 4300 support plateau... Last is 4328.00...

Let's just say that based on the current setup, I am cautiously optimistic for upside continuation...

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