What's Next For Yield After 3-Week Nosedive?
When POTUS ended his 40-minute CNBC interview, ES was trading at 6366.50 compared to 6371.75 just before the start of the interview...
As for Benchmark 10-Year YIELD, my attached Daily Chart shows the three-week nosedive from 4.49% (7/17/25) to 4.20% (8/04/25). During the next 1-3 days, the inability of YIELD to reverse off of 4.20%, and then take out resistance at 4.25%, will argue for downside continuation toward a challenge of the significant support line from the September 2024 low at 3.60% that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 4.06%...
Why the downward pressure on long rates? Expectations of an economic slowdown? As of yet, little sign of inflationary impact from tariffs? Anticipation of Fed rate cuts now that the labor market appears to have slowed dramatically? Anticipation of a more dovish Fed policy implemented by the next Fed Chairman? All of the above? Who knows? What we do know is that benchmark YIELD has declined nearly 7% in the past three weeks...