When and At What Price To Begin Shorting the QQQ's?
QQQ-- Fellow member KRETX (Kirk) asks:
Please provide your thoughts on when, at what price... for someone to begin shorting the QQQ's...
Well now, my answer is when I get a strong signal to do so. Unless QQQ presses beneath its January pullback Double Bottom Lows at 499.62 (1/13/25) and 502.32 (yesterday's DeepSeek spike low), my preferred scenario argues that all of the price action off of the 12/16/24 ATH at 539.15 represents a wide, sideways range between 534 and 539 on the high side versus 500 to 505 on the low side.
The range represents EITHER a bullish digestion period atop the August-December 2024 upleg (420 to 539.25), OR a developing top formation that needs an initial confirmation on a closing breach of 499.62 (see my attached 4-Hour Chart).
If I am a shorter-term trader, then I am treating the rangebound market as a bullish digestion pattern ahead of upside continuation to new ATHs that project to 553-563... UNLESS 499.62 is violated first...
From the BIG Picture perspective of my attached Weekly QQQ setup however, my cycle work that shows the cresting and roll down of a heretofore sensitive and timely 3.7 year cycle adds a bit of trepidation for the bulls. With the cycle rolling over into a mid-70% completion position, cyclic headwinds are, and will increasingly become, more intense, thus increasing the likelihood that the bull trend for the QQQ is nearing exhaustion.
That said, the cycle work AT THIS TIME merely warns us that we should be partially hedged or in a less exposed long portfolio position heading into mid-February-- the second worst performing month of the year.
The cycle work is NOT screaming "get short," but it is warning us to be careful, to be sure...
If I am looking to short the Qs, I am waiting for a break below 499.62 or a climb to new ATHs above 540... In between, its a scalpers circle-jerk market... Last is 519.59...