Why Equity Indices Are Poised For A Pause

Good Wednesday Morning, MPTraders!  April 15, 2026-- Pre-Market Update:

-- The overbought market was positioned for a Wednesday pullback, but President Trump's comments (see below) and the attendant knee-jerk algorithmic buy programs attached to his comments put a floor under any weakness in pre-market trading. MJP comment: Whereas POTUS jawboning and comments drove the equity market higher since 4/08/26, now- one week later-- his tweets are merely holding it up, not driving it higher, which is a much riskier proposition for late buyers up here... and a prescription for disappointment... 

--  Some of the indications that the equity indices are poised for a pause in the uptrend (at a minimum) and possibly a 2% to 3% correction in the upcoming hours/days are shown below this AM's pre-open headlines...

(FinancialJuice)

-- Yesterday's additional 1.2% upmove in SPY atop a 9% rally during the past two weeks propelled Call Buying to historically overbought levels based on the behavior of the CBOE Put/Call Ratio (see chart below). The plunge in the P/C ratio is a warning to the bulls that a pause or pullback is approaching rapidly, but in and of itself, the Ratio is NOT a sell signal in SPY (SPX, ES)...

-- Cash VIX is down 43% from its 3/27/26 high at 31.65, but more importantly for our purposes, exhibits a downtrend pattern that is nearing completion. My pattern work argues that EITHER a sustained climb above 19.00, OR a press below 17.89 closer to 16.00 will trigger downside completion signals in my work... last is 18.18...

-- My attached 15 Minute SPY Chart setup shows the 10.5% upmove that has the right look of a nearly completed upleg from the 3/30/26 low at 629.28 into my optimal target window from 695 to 700. The price strength from Monday's pullback low at 674.22 to this AM's high at 695.60 also exhibits the right look of a nearly completed final upmove within the larger upleg... 

-- My attached Big Picture Daily SPY Chart shows the vertical assault from the 3/30/26 low, the major up-gap thrust on the morning of 4/08/26 that left behind an Unfilled downside "Magnet Price" that will have to be filled sooner or later, and current price action that is probing heavy consequential resistance in the ATH-zone from 693.68 to 697.84, that the market is navigating now. In the absence of a bullish catalyst atop the two-week vertical advance (a peace deal, right?) that gooses the stock indices to test and likely take out the ATHs, SPY will remain vulnerable to a stall and/or a pullback from current levels. If it is the latter, then the optimal pullback target support window is 687 down to 682... Last is 694.46...