Tuesday, July 12, 2022-- Mptrader.com Out Front: Will Wednesday Morning's CPI Provide THE Directional Catalyst for the Equity Indices?
My attached 4 Hour Chart of ES (S&P Sept. E-Mini Futures) shows ALL of the price action from the All Time High at 4801.75 established on 1/04/22. The pattern carved out from the ATH at 4801.75 to the June 17 corrective low at 3639 (-24.2%) has the right look of a completed downleg, HOWEVER, the recovery pattern off of the 3639 low has formed a Coil type of formation, which very much leaves my work "wondering" if in fact ES still has unfinished business on the downside prior to the conclusion of the post-Jan, post-ATH correction?
At the moment, my pattern and momentum work is warning me that the longer ES remains confined within the Coil, the more likely the Coil represents a bearish continuation setup that argues for a resolution to the downside that projects to new corrective lows into the 3550 to 3580 target zone.
Bottom Line-- ES is running out of time to thrust to the upside above 3922 towards 4000-4020. My sense is that tomorrow's pre-market release of the June CPI Report will THE catalyst that sends ES in a particular direction. As long as ES strength is capped beneath 3922, it remains vulnerable to downside acceleration beneath critical support from 3785 down to 3741.25, which if breached and sustained, will trigger sell signals that point to 3550-3580, where ES will have corrected 25%-26% from the ATH.