On January 24, we alerted MPTrader members to an opportunistic technical setup in NVDA, writing:
"NVDA Bottom Line: When I zoom out for a view of all of the price action for the past 8 months, I can make a compelling case that a very powerful base-accumulation period and pattern have developed that is putting intense upward pressure on the 198-200 multi-month resistance-upside breakout zone that if hurdled, will trigger an intermediate-term projection to at least 218-224, and an outlier upside target zone closer to 280. As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained by support lodged from 178 down to 167.30, NVDA deserves the benefit of the doubt on the upside for the next 1 to 3 months... Last is 189.83."
Fast-forward 8 weeks to last week's trading where NVDA hit a high of 275.89, up 155% from its October 2022 major corrective low at 108.13, and up 45% from where it was trading when we initially alerted MPTrader members!
What's next for NVDA? As much as I would like to tell members that NVDA still has much higher to climb, my current read on the technical and fundamental situation indicates that in the nearer-term timeframe, NVDA is showing signs of technical stress that I usually associate with approaching upside exhaustion ahead of a meaningful pullback.
In addition, NVDA recently has been the recipient of a lot of positive press and Wall Street hype about its central chip design and production position uniquely suited to supply the forthcoming explosion in Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications. That said, based on our current setup work, while NVDA is a long-term "hold," we are very cautious near term and look for a substantial bout of profit-taking weakness (20% plus) before another sustained up-leg is likely to emerge.
Join me and our MPTrader member community today to participate in our ongoing intraday discussions about NVDA, and other AI-focused names such as MSFT, GOOG, and ADBE, as well as discussions about the technical and fundamental setups in individual stocks, ETFs, Macro Indices, Commodities, Precious Metals, and Bitcoin.
On Monday morning, November 13, 2023, a full 5 trading sessions before the approaching November Options Expiration (OPEX) (11/17/23), I posted my chart-based commentary for our members:SPY-- Considering that Friday is November Option Expiration, where are the "magnetized strike prices" as we start OPEX week? Based on my attached Hourly Chart, the magnetized strike price zone spans from 436 to 441. Should SPY take out the upside barrier of 441, then the follow-through outlier magnetized target could be as high as 450 before or on Friday.
On October 23, 2023, ten days before the November 1st FOMC meeting and policy statement, I posted the following commentary about the downward-spiraling TLT (20+ year T-bond ETF):My attached 4-hour Chart of TLT shows that the relentless and near-vertical downtrend that commenced at the beginning of August from around 100 hit a new long-term low at 81.92 this AM, positioning it in my intermediate-term optimal downside target zone from 80 to 82.
On the afternoon of September 25, Mike Paulenoff posted a warning signal to MPTraders members about the developing acute oversold condition in RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies), writing:"RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies) hit a new multi-month corrective low of 71.02, down 33% from the 4/10/23 post-pandemic High at 106.02. Although RTX has violated my optimal target window of 73-75, the stair-step corrective pattern off of the 4/19/23 high at 104.
On October 3, Mike Paulenoff posted the following "Heads Up!" about GLD (SPDR Gold Trust, ETF) for MPTrader members: "GLD has pressed to an important technical inflection window from 169.50 down to 166.30, from where I will be expecting corrective downside exhaustion off of the 5/04/23 high at 191.36, and new buying interest. From a nearer-term perspective, given the acute oversold but CONFIRMED Momentum reading of 17.16 an hour ago, my preferred scenario argues for another loop down that marginally violates today's low at 168.
On September 28, 2023, with NVDA trading at 429.31, I told MPTrader members that my work is warning me about a complex technical setup that argues for a prolonged corrective scenario prior to a resumption of dominant uptrend strength. I posted the following:My near-term pattern and momentum work argue that since its 9/21/23 corrective low at 409.