Bearish Call On Home Builders ... What's Next For ITB?
by Mike Paulenoff
June 19, 2022 • 12:00 AM EDT
Last Wednesday, prior to the official FOMC rate hike of 75 bps, Mike Paulenoff warned MPTrader members about the likelihood of additional weakness in the beleaguered home builders, writing about the ITB (iShares US Home Construction ETF):
"In that, neither my pattern work nor my intermediate-term Momentum gauges offer much technical confidence that ITB will be able to carve out a meaningful corrective basing area in and around 53.00, I am expecting the price structure to head still lower to test the next key Fibonacci support plateau in and around 46.00."
Mike added, "The fact that the Fed intends to maintain its rate hike cycle through Q3, 2022 at a minimum (unless today's FOMC policy statement and Powell press conference change the timeline), and given the sharp back-up in mortgage rates, the crash in demand for mortgages, the slowdown in economic growth (recession?), and residual upward pressure on prices in general, and housing in particular, the prospects for a powerful, sustained upside reversal in ITB appears low-to-none."
ITB, which was trading at 53.18 at the time, proceeded to nosedive into Friday's late-session 11-month corrective low at 48.02, a down-move of 9.7%, bearing down on Mike's next lower key technical level at 45.80-4600, which represents the Fibonacci 62% support plateau of the entire post-March 2020 Pandemic bull phase.
The ability of ITB to contain further weakness in and around 46.00 will provide Mike with valuable technical and macro market information about the underlying strength or weakness of the housing sector, the consumer, and the outlook for mortgages (longer-term interest rates). Mike's work argues that ITB buyers need to emerge to imbue an otherwise dismal and still-deteriorating intermediate-term technical setup with an initial measure of confidence to avert triggering the potential for a "death spiral" in the housing and home building sectors.
Join Mike and MPTrader members next week as they monitor, chart, and discuss the ITB as well as many individual names, ETFs, macro indices, commodities, Bitcoin, and Precious Metals miners in real-time as they brain-storm hour-to-hour navigation of the current challenging trader and investor environment.
Last Tuesday afternoon, hours before CAVA (Cava Group) was scheduled to report Earnings, this is what I posted for MPTrader members:CAVA reports Earnings after today's close. Approaching the news, CAVA is circling 61, a full 40% beneath its April 2026 high at 98.79, amid an unconfirmed new corrective low at 60.21 yesterday (8/10/26), leaving CAVA positioned for a "buy-the-news" setup (the opposite of a sell-the-news setup in a name that is up 30% to 40% approaching Earnings).
Good Sunday Afternoon, MPTraders! Last Thursday afternoon, ahead of AAPL's Earnings, this is what we discussed about the stock's probable price path in reaction to the news:Unless AAPL produces something extraordinary, or otherwise announces some unknown bullish catalyst, my pattern work has a very difficult time expecting anything other than a "best-case" sell-the-news scenario in reaction to Earnings. I can make a compelling argument that the upleg from the 6/26/26 low at 273.33 to the 7/29/26 ATH at 344.
XOM (Exxon Mobil)-- Back on May 19, 2026, a fellow MPTrader member requested an update on XOM. This is what we discussed at that time:My attached Daily Chart setup shows my preferred scenario calling for a near-term peak of the current upmove from the 4/17 low at 141.97 to a target zone from 162 to 165, followed by a rollover and press lower that revisits and possibly breaks the 41/7 low, which also will complete the larger corrective process from the 3/30/26 ATH at 176.41.
Pharma Update: MRK and LLYOn Wednesday (6/24/26), this is what we discussed about MRK:MRK as well, which we see on my attached Daily Chart exhbits a VERY BULLISH technical setup-- quite the opposite of beleaguered PFE. My pattern work argues that all of the price action from the 2/25/26 high at 125.14 represents a high-level bullish digestion period and pattern atop the major upleg from the May 2025 low at 73.31.
On January 2, 2026, this is what I posted about CAVA (Cava Group Casual Mediterranean Cuisine) to MPTrader members:After CAVA's meteoric climb from 29.00 in October 2023 to an ATH at 172.65 in November 2024, the stock rolled over into a relentless decline that hit its low at 43.
