Getting The Jump on JPM's Decline ... What's Next For The Stock and For Financials In General?
by Mike Paulenoff
May 15, 2022 • 10:04 AM EDT
Back on March 1, 2022, Mike Paulenoff posted a technical "heads-up" about JPM for members of MPTrader.com, writing:
"JPM has broken down in glaring fashion from a 12-month Top Formation that my pattern work addressed four weeks ago in case JPM sustained beneath 139-140. Today's low at 134.15 violated my shallowest target zone of 135.50-137.50, and points next to 128-130, with an outlier target zone in the vicinity of 115. With XLF amounting to 12% of the S&P 500, judging from the ugly setup in JPM (10% of the XLF), I doubt we will be seeing XLF leading or making a major contribution to SPX index strength anytime soon."
JPM, which was trading at 134.83 at the time, has since declined 14.5%. It hit a corrective low this past Thursday at 115.37, right in Mike's "outlier target zone," and a full 33% off of its all-time-high at 172.96 from October 25, 2021.
What does Mike think about JPM going forward? According to Mike, who has been tracking the stock with nearly a dozen technical updates since March1, unless and until JPM can recover to and climb above resistance from 124.40 to 127.50, JPM will remain "challenged" by intense macro headwinds and continue to project a setup that suggests JPM and the big money center banks are foretelling the potential for a severe U.S. economic slowdown.
Join Mike and our MPTrader members for ongoing intraday discussions about JPM as well as many other stocks, ETFs, macro indices, commodities, and Bitcoin that will help you manage risk and identify actionable trading and investing setups.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
Many of you have been members of MPTrader for years, perhaps decades (I have been providing MPTrader.com analysis since February 2003!). Rarely do I take a victory lap about my stock, ETF, and market calls, largely because I have always thought my work should speak for itself, which obviates the need to bloviate and beat my chest to stroke my ego. At my core, I am a market nerd and Geek, not a slick-talking marketer (for better or worse).
Back on November 12, 2024, fellow MPTrader member "Rayray" wrote the following when ARCH (Archer Aviation) was trading at $4.83:Mike, as you may recall I have been an active follower of ACHR. I no longer have a position that I trade off of and am on the sidelines watching a move that I should have participated in . That said, is this the move to $9.00 that has been on the table for a while ?... My analysis: NO!...
On the morning of Tuesday, November 12, 2024, I posted the following Heads-Up to MPTrader members concerning my DIS (Disney) analysis ahead of earnings:DIS (Disney) reports earnings on Thursday morning. Technically, DIS approaches Earnings in strong near-term technical condition that argues for a positive reaction to earnings. As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 94.80, DIS points higher to 105.10/40, and if taken out, then to 113-115... Last is 100.25...
On September 20, 2024, fellow MPTrader member Bloom asked Mike Paulenoff to look at his chart setup in Upstart Holdings (UPST). This is what they discussed in Mike's post to our Discussion Room in its entirety:UPST (Upstart Holdings)... It is NO coincidence that when the Fed initiated its rate HIKE cycle in March 2022, it coincided with the steep, contractionary, prolonged bear phase in cloud-based AI lender UPST.
Each Earnings Season (one is in progress as we speak), I analyze my technical setups on individual stocks to see if they provide enough evidence to issue a "highly confident" directional call to MPtrader members. In other words, what is my chart work telling me about the likelihood of a bullish or bearish investor reaction to Earnings?Suppose I apply the same approach to Tuesday's presidential election.
