Last Wednesday afternoon (Jan 13), with the IWM at 210.76, Mike Paulenoff told MPTrader members:
"The Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF is just about 0.5% off of its all time high. As long as any weakness is contained above 204.30, my near-term pattern set up from the 1/04 pullback low at 190.94 is poised for still higher ATHs above 211.73."
The IWM reached a high of 215 the very next day.
Meanwhile, Mike had also cautioned: "Juxtaposed against the above-mentioned constructive near-term pattern set up is a glaring negative Momentum Divergence (11/09 and 1/07), that provides us with an anecdotal warning signal that strength is on borrowed time, nearing exhaustion. Take the signal for what it's worth-- a warning, until the music stops in IWM."
In fact, on Friday, with IWM at 211.27, he wrote: "All eyes on 209.20 nearest support in IWM, which, if violated and sustained, will trigger an initial sell signal."
IWM pressed to a low at 208.26, triggering that preliminary sell signal.
What's next for IWM? Friday's move is certainly a warning signal that IWM is vulnerable to a meaningful correction after climbing 48% from its 9/24 pivot low, far outpacing the 22% gain for QQQ, and the 19% gain in SPY during the same time period. The Small Cap Index has a habit of leading into BOTH directions, which is precisely why Mike is closely tracking its set up for MPTrader members.
Join Mike in our MPTrader trading room for his technical updates and member conversation about IWM, as well as many stocks, ETFs, Indices, and commodities.
This past Tuesday, September 26, two days prior to NKE (Nike) earnings, Mike Paulenoff posted one of his pre-earnings "Heads Up" to our members, writing:"Certainly, NKE is oversold enough within a relentless downtrend pattern off of its Feb. 2023 recovery high at 131.31, that a positive reaction to quarterly results reflecting anything other than a disaster coupled with dismal guidance, is likely to trigger an initial positive reaction into the 95 to 100 recovery resistance zone.
On Wednesday, September 7, during one of Mike Paulenoff's frequent intraday updates of the E-Mini SP 500 futures contract (symbol ES) to keep MPTrader members informed about dominant near and intermediate-term trend direction in the index and the SPY ETF, Mike posted an important warning:"ES from a BIG Picture perspective shows the weakness off of last Friday's (9/01) rally high at 4547.75 into this AM's low at 4434.75 (-2.5% of the 4.
Back on June 26th, when nearby WTI Oil futures were circling $67/bbl, Mike Paulenoff issued a heads-up to MPTrader members about a potentially opportunistic technical setup developing in OXY (Occidental Petroleum), writing:"OXY pressed to a low at 55.58 this AM, which marginally violated the 5/11 low at 56.16, BUT held above the more technically significant March 2023 low at 55.51 prior to pivoting to the upside into positive territory, now trading at 57.47.
On Monday August 28, we posted a heads-up about FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) to our MPTrader members, writing: FCX (Copper, Gold, Oil) producer has the right technical look (and a positive momentum divergence at Friday's low) of a completed pullback (44.70 to 37.74) within its larger bullish multi-month Coil formation. Last Friday's (8/25/23) low at 37.74 represented a very healthy 15.6% correction off of the 7/31/23 rally peak at 44.70 and also amounted to an exact Fibonacci 62% retracement of the 5/24/23 to 7/31/23 advance from 33.06 to 44.70.
Top Call: NVDADuring the afternoon trading session of August 23, 2023, prior to the release of NVDA's (Nvidia Corp.) highly anticipated quarterly earnings report, we alerted our MPTrader members to our near-term forecast for NVDA, derived from my technical setup work heading into earnings.