Getting Ahead Of Rally In Retail Sector ETF
by Mike Paulenoff
May 15, 2021 • 11:29 AM EDT
This past Friday, 30 minutes before the release of Retail Sales data for April, Mike Paulenoff posted his analysis of XRT, the SPDR S&P Retail Sector ETF.
After explaining in detail his analysis, which you can read here, Mike concluded: "All of the action from the Jan. 28th high at 99.24 through Tuesday's (May 12th) higher pullback low, represents a larger, bullish digestion period and pattern atop the dominant 15 month uptrend. In addition, based on my experience, the Coil type pattern that has been carved out has the requisite number of traverses across the contracting range to be considered complete or nearly complete, which if reasonably accurate, argues for the emergence of a new upleg in the XRT that propels the Retail ETF to new highs above 100, with an outlier upside target zone of 108 to 112."
XRT, trading at 89.56 at the time, proceeded to gap up to 90.60/65 at the open, despite a disappointing Retail Sales report. It clawed its way higher for all of Friday's session, closing at 93.42, a full 4.3% above its pre-market price at Mike's alert, and 3% above its up-gap opening price. This indicated strongly that the bullish pattern described by Mike in his early AM analysis to MPTader members was "calling the shots" for the XRT regardless of the apparent hiccup in April Retail Sales.
Where is XRT headed next? Based on Mike's analysis, XRT hasn't even broken out of its multi-month bullish digestion pattern yet.
Join Mike and our members in our MPTrader room as they analyze, discuss, and project the upcoming price action in XRT, as well as other names, ETFs, macro sector indices and futures, cryptos, commodities, and more.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
Three hours before the July Fed 31, 2024 (FOMC) meeting, I posted the following chart commentary about my technical setup work on 10-year Treasury YIELD and its actionable longer-term Treasury bond ETF, the TLT (20+ Year T-bond, ETF):Heading toward Fed Time, 10-year YIELD and TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF) certainly appear to be anticipating lower interest rate news or innuendos from the FOMC statement (guidance) and Jay Powell in his post-meeting press conference.
On August 15, with XLV (Healthcare SPDR, ETF) approaching Mike Paulenoff's target zone (noted in an April 18th post), Mike responded to an MPTrader member's question about whether it was "time to sell and find something with more potential?" Mike wrote: "My short answer: no, it is not yet time to sell (although I will never dissuade anyone from taking profits and from ringing the cash register). My pattern and momentum work argue that upside potential extends from 156 to 161.
On August 6th, when UBER was trading 62, this is what Mike Paulenoff discussed with MPTrader members about the stock's technical setup in the immediate aftermath of the company's quarterly earnings report:"UBER... produced stellar earnings, albeit a bit light on next quarter's bookings. The stock is up 5.9% in pre-market trading within a near-term setup that argues yesterday's spike low at 53.25 ended a 35% correction off of the March high at 82.14.
At 10:45 AM ET on Friday July 26, 2 hours 15 minutes after the release of important PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) inflation data, this is what Mike Paulenoff discussed with MPTrader members about SPY (SPDR SP500 ETF):"If I have a concern today it is the unfilled up-gap left behind from last eve's 4 PM ET close at 538.32 to the low of the AM session so far at 541.25.
On June 24, 2024, I posted the following chart-based commentary about PFE (Pfizer, Inc) to the MPTrader discussion room:PFE (Pfizer) has the right look of a setup that is on the verge of entering a central, bullish price thrust from within a December-June rounded bottom formation. Only a failure to push up through and close above the 200 DMA, now at 28.94, followed by a decline that breaks last week's low (6/14) at 26.87 will Neutralize my currently bullish bias... Last is 28.27...