Getting Ahead Of Rally In Retail Sector ETF
by Mike Paulenoff
May 15, 2021 • 11:29 AM EDT
This past Friday, 30 minutes before the release of Retail Sales data for April, Mike Paulenoff posted his analysis of XRT, the SPDR S&P Retail Sector ETF.
After explaining in detail his analysis, which you can read here, Mike concluded: "All of the action from the Jan. 28th high at 99.24 through Tuesday's (May 12th) higher pullback low, represents a larger, bullish digestion period and pattern atop the dominant 15 month uptrend. In addition, based on my experience, the Coil type pattern that has been carved out has the requisite number of traverses across the contracting range to be considered complete or nearly complete, which if reasonably accurate, argues for the emergence of a new upleg in the XRT that propels the Retail ETF to new highs above 100, with an outlier upside target zone of 108 to 112."
XRT, trading at 89.56 at the time, proceeded to gap up to 90.60/65 at the open, despite a disappointing Retail Sales report. It clawed its way higher for all of Friday's session, closing at 93.42, a full 4.3% above its pre-market price at Mike's alert, and 3% above its up-gap opening price. This indicated strongly that the bullish pattern described by Mike in his early AM analysis to MPTader members was "calling the shots" for the XRT regardless of the apparent hiccup in April Retail Sales.
Where is XRT headed next? Based on Mike's analysis, XRT hasn't even broken out of its multi-month bullish digestion pattern yet.
Join Mike and our members in our MPTrader room as they analyze, discuss, and project the upcoming price action in XRT, as well as other names, ETFs, macro sector indices and futures, cryptos, commodities, and more.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
On April 5, Mike Paulenoff discussed the following with MPTrader members about the significant negative behavior of the equity indices in general and the SPY (SP 500 Equity Index ETF), writing:"... Yesterday's nosedive in the price action left behind a Bearish Engulfing Candle in SPY, SPX, ES, et al... My attached Big Picture Chart of SPY shows the powerful, relentless Oct-Apr. advance from 409.21 to 526.
On March 13, amid a broad discussion about the emerging bull phase developing in the precious metals and miners, Mike Paulenoff posted this about WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals) to our MPTrader discussion room:From a more Silver-Gold perspective (if FCX is perceived to be Copper-centric), let's notice that WPM strength is pushing up against its near-term resistance line in the vicinity of 45.
Right after the opening bell on the morning of October 20, 2023, Mike Paulenoff posted the following GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) commentary to our MPTrader Discussion Room:"For all of the long-suffering Gold Bugs... As we speak, GLD is attempting to take out key 5-month resistance lodged between 181.20 and 184.40, which if successful and sustained, will point GLD to 188-190 next... Last is 183.88...
During the afternoon session of February 15, this is what Mike Paulenoff posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room about the technical setup in the oil service company SLB (Schlumberger):"This name in the oil service sector exhibits a well-demarcated 4-year bullish channel with the SLB price structure upturning off of the lower boundary line in the vicinity of 47.00 (the 2/13/24 low) amid a glaring double non-confirmation of the weakness into the lower channel line.
On December 26, 2023, fellow MPTrader member FJB asked me the following question: Mike - do you feel comfortable giving some of your top sectors for next year if you have any? This was my response:In order of preference based on my technical setup work:1- XLV (Healthcare)2- XLB (Materials)3- XLE (Energy)4- XLI (Industrials)5- XLF (Financials)As of the close this past Friday, 3/15/24, YTD results showed XLV +6.58%, XLB +6.15%, XLI +7.06%, XLF +8.54%, and XLE (Energy) leading all sectors, at +9.27%.