Alerting Members To TSLA's Precarious Technical Position

by Mike Paulenoff
October 16, 2022 • 5:11 PM EDT
During the final hour of trading on Friday, TSLA broke its prior corrective low at 206.22 from Thursday, and then proceeded to press still-lower, breaking a much more consequential low at 205.81 from May 25 -- the low from which it had rallied 50% into the broader-market August recovery highs.
Heading into Friday's closing bell, Mike Paulenoff posted a chart alert to MPTrader members about TSLA's precarious technical position, noting:
"TSLA reports earnings on 10/19 after the close... Today's failure to follow through from yesterday's upmove from 206.22 to 226.26 followed by a sharp downside reversal that pressed through BOTH yesterday's low at 206.22 AND the May low at 205.81 is VERY UGLY ACTION and triggered NEW DOWNSIDE PROJECTIONS to 185-188, and if violated, then to 170-175 (see my attached chart) prior to my expectation of the emergence of a sustainable recovery rally effort... The reaction to earnings likely will be a significant directional catalyst for TSLA."
In Friday's aftermarket trading, TSLA traded down to 204.16, last seen back in June 2021, which left TSLA "dangling" beneath a newly-formed 5-month plateau of prior lows that has now morphed into very challenging resistance from 206 to 212.
What's next for TSLA? The resistance level will likely will remain a serious barrier to any sustainable rally effort ahead of Wednesday's post-market earnings report and conference call.
In addition, purely from his pattern and momentum perspective, Mike is now looking for a very significant pivot low in TSLA from 200 down to a potential capitulation spike low into the 170-175 target zone either ahead of or in reaction to Wednesday's event and opportunity risk period.
Join Mike and Mptrader members' intraday discussion group and chart analysis of TSLA, as well as many other individual stocks, ETFs, macro indices, commodities, and Crypto as the markets enter the target-rich Q3 earnings season.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
In the early afternoon on April 11, this was my note to our members:"IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF)-- From a trading perspective, anyone who is in sync with the Bitcoin setup might consider owning IBIT (iShares Bitcoin ETF) against a stop below its 4/07/25 low at 42.98 (see my attached Daily Chart below)...
Last Thursday (4/17/25) afternoon, ahead of NFLX (Netflix) post-close earnings report and the three-day Good Friday holiday weekend, we discussed the technical setup and whether or not the NFLX pattern was positioned to react positively to the news : The NFLX setup heading into Earnings later today is favorable for upside continuation above the prior two rally highs at 993.45 (4/15) and 998.70 (3/25), but not to a new ATH above 1064.
Last Thursday afternoon (4/10/25), the commentary below is what I discussed with MPTrader members about my Big Picture technical setup work: Tomorrow is the final session of the week. We get some big bank Earnings and PPI before the open, and more than likely, one or more POTUS televised events that undoubtedly will move markets one way or other. Technically, tomorrow's (Friday) close will be important to my Weekly Chart Work.
At the beginning of last week, fellow members Rayray and GordonGekko asked for my technical setup work on BX (Blackstone Inc). This is what we discussed on the morning of March 25, 2025:My attached Daily Chart shows the November 2024 to mid-March 2025 correction (-32%) followed by the recovery rally from 135.60 to 153.18.
On March 10, 2025, fifteen minutes before the closing bell and Oracle's forthcoming Earnings Report, below was the analysis I posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room about ORCL:"... My preferred scenario indicates a negative reaction to the news that sends ORCL reeling to test important support at 139.50-141.20-- where ORCL MUST reverse to the upside to avert triggering still lower projections into the 118-123 (back the truck up) target window... Last is 149.32"...