Alerting Members To TSLA's Precarious Technical Position
by Mike Paulenoff
October 16, 2022 • 5:11 PM EDT
During the final hour of trading on Friday, TSLA broke its prior corrective low at 206.22 from Thursday, and then proceeded to press still-lower, breaking a much more consequential low at 205.81 from May 25 -- the low from which it had rallied 50% into the broader-market August recovery highs.
Heading into Friday's closing bell, Mike Paulenoff posted a chart alert to MPTrader members about TSLA's precarious technical position, noting:
"TSLA reports earnings on 10/19 after the close... Today's failure to follow through from yesterday's upmove from 206.22 to 226.26 followed by a sharp downside reversal that pressed through BOTH yesterday's low at 206.22 AND the May low at 205.81 is VERY UGLY ACTION and triggered NEW DOWNSIDE PROJECTIONS to 185-188, and if violated, then to 170-175 (see my attached chart) prior to my expectation of the emergence of a sustainable recovery rally effort... The reaction to earnings likely will be a significant directional catalyst for TSLA."
In Friday's aftermarket trading, TSLA traded down to 204.16, last seen back in June 2021, which left TSLA "dangling" beneath a newly-formed 5-month plateau of prior lows that has now morphed into very challenging resistance from 206 to 212.
What's next for TSLA? The resistance level will likely will remain a serious barrier to any sustainable rally effort ahead of Wednesday's post-market earnings report and conference call.
In addition, purely from his pattern and momentum perspective, Mike is now looking for a very significant pivot low in TSLA from 200 down to a potential capitulation spike low into the 170-175 target zone either ahead of or in reaction to Wednesday's event and opportunity risk period.
Join Mike and Mptrader members' intraday discussion group and chart analysis of TSLA, as well as many other individual stocks, ETFs, macro indices, commodities, and Crypto as the markets enter the target-rich Q3 earnings season.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts
on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including
international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
Last Tuesday afternoon, hours before CAVA (Cava Group) was scheduled to report Earnings, this is what I posted for MPTrader members:CAVA reports Earnings after today's close. Approaching the news, CAVA is circling 61, a full 40% beneath its April 2026 high at 98.79, amid an unconfirmed new corrective low at 60.21 yesterday (8/10/26), leaving CAVA positioned for a "buy-the-news" setup (the opposite of a sell-the-news setup in a name that is up 30% to 40% approaching Earnings).
Good Sunday Afternoon, MPTraders! Last Thursday afternoon, ahead of AAPL's Earnings, this is what we discussed about the stock's probable price path in reaction to the news:Unless AAPL produces something extraordinary, or otherwise announces some unknown bullish catalyst, my pattern work has a very difficult time expecting anything other than a "best-case" sell-the-news scenario in reaction to Earnings. I can make a compelling argument that the upleg from the 6/26/26 low at 273.33 to the 7/29/26 ATH at 344.
XOM (Exxon Mobil)-- Back on May 19, 2026, a fellow MPTrader member requested an update on XOM. This is what we discussed at that time:My attached Daily Chart setup shows my preferred scenario calling for a near-term peak of the current upmove from the 4/17 low at 141.97 to a target zone from 162 to 165, followed by a rollover and press lower that revisits and possibly breaks the 41/7 low, which also will complete the larger corrective process from the 3/30/26 ATH at 176.41.
Pharma Update: MRK and LLYOn Wednesday (6/24/26), this is what we discussed about MRK:MRK as well, which we see on my attached Daily Chart exhbits a VERY BULLISH technical setup-- quite the opposite of beleaguered PFE. My pattern work argues that all of the price action from the 2/25/26 high at 125.14 represents a high-level bullish digestion period and pattern atop the major upleg from the May 2025 low at 73.31.
On January 2, 2026, this is what I posted about CAVA (Cava Group Casual Mediterranean Cuisine) to MPTrader members:After CAVA's meteoric climb from 29.00 in October 2023 to an ATH at 172.65 in November 2024, the stock rolled over into a relentless decline that hit its low at 43.
