Alerting Members To TSLA's Precarious Technical Position

by Mike Paulenoff
October 16, 2022 • 5:11 PM EDT
During the final hour of trading on Friday, TSLA broke its prior corrective low at 206.22 from Thursday, and then proceeded to press still-lower, breaking a much more consequential low at 205.81 from May 25 -- the low from which it had rallied 50% into the broader-market August recovery highs.
Heading into Friday's closing bell, Mike Paulenoff posted a chart alert to MPTrader members about TSLA's precarious technical position, noting:
"TSLA reports earnings on 10/19 after the close... Today's failure to follow through from yesterday's upmove from 206.22 to 226.26 followed by a sharp downside reversal that pressed through BOTH yesterday's low at 206.22 AND the May low at 205.81 is VERY UGLY ACTION and triggered NEW DOWNSIDE PROJECTIONS to 185-188, and if violated, then to 170-175 (see my attached chart) prior to my expectation of the emergence of a sustainable recovery rally effort... The reaction to earnings likely will be a significant directional catalyst for TSLA."
In Friday's aftermarket trading, TSLA traded down to 204.16, last seen back in June 2021, which left TSLA "dangling" beneath a newly-formed 5-month plateau of prior lows that has now morphed into very challenging resistance from 206 to 212.
What's next for TSLA? The resistance level will likely will remain a serious barrier to any sustainable rally effort ahead of Wednesday's post-market earnings report and conference call.
In addition, purely from his pattern and momentum perspective, Mike is now looking for a very significant pivot low in TSLA from 200 down to a potential capitulation spike low into the 170-175 target zone either ahead of or in reaction to Wednesday's event and opportunity risk period.
Join Mike and Mptrader members' intraday discussion group and chart analysis of TSLA, as well as many other individual stocks, ETFs, macro indices, commodities, and Crypto as the markets enter the target-rich Q3 earnings season.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
On July 31, 2025, with SLV (Silver ETF) trading at 33.27, this is what we discussed about my technical setup:SLV-- On the subject of tariffs, copper, and silver, Trump extended the tariff deal with Mexico for 90 days, which included steel and copper, but NO MENTION of Silver (so far). Let's notice on my attached 4-Hour chart of SLV that the week-long nosedive from 35.91 to this AM's low at 33.
On February 18, 2025, this is what I posted on MPTrader about KWEB (Chinese Internet ETF) that alerted traders to a potentially explosive setup that should keep KWEB on our radar screens going forward :My attached Daily Chart shows that KWEB is attempting to emerge from a huge, three-year rounded base-accumulation setup that projects much higher prices as the price structure climbs the "recovery wall of worry" in the aftermath of the relentless bear phase from the February 2021 ATH at 104.
On July 29, 2025, this is what we discussed about TEVA (Teva Pharma), accompanied by my then-current 4-Hour Chart, just ahead of Earnings:My attached 4-Hour Chart setup argues that TEVA is poised for upside continuation of its April-May advance (12.47 to 18.67) EITHER right from current levels in reaction to a positive Earnings Report tomorrow morning, OR into a BTD bout of weakness into the 14.85-15.55 target support window.
On the morning of August 6th, I posted the chart below after seeing Fundstrat's Tom Lee discuss his CEO position in BMNR (BitMine Immersion Technologies), and the fact that BMNR was accumulating a large cache of Ethereum (ETH) that will serve as an ETH Treasury holding similar to the Bitcoin model used by Microstrategy's Michael Saylor. At the time, BNMR had climbed from 31.85 to 33.70, which piqued my attention technically:"BNMR ... once again is putting upward pressure on the 34.
Nearly two months ago, I posted my technical setup on TMO (Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc.) to alert MPTrader members to a potentially significant upside reversal pattern. Here is my commentary from June 3, 2025:My attached Big Picture Daily Chart shows the major bear phase from the 9/10/24 ATH at 627.88 to last week's (5/23/25) low at 390.66 (-38%). Most interestingly, all of the price action from the 4/09/25 low at 409.