Anticipating AAPL's Upside - Market Analysis for Jun 9th, 2024

This coming week is filled with consequential macro and micro "events," such as NVDA's 10 for 1 stock split, CPI, PPI, and TSLA's annual meeting, during which shareholders will vote to approve or reject Elon Musk's 2018, $56 billion pay package.

Arguably, the most significant "event" for the technology sector, in particular, and for the major equity indices is Apple Inc.'s WWDC Conference, which begins tomorrow. Tim Cook and Company are expected to announce new generative AI bells and whistles that will reassure faithful and prospective shareholders that AAPL, indeed, is getting up to speed in integrating AI into its marquee iPhone products.

On the morning of May 22, this is what Mike Paulenoff discussed with our MPTrader members about AAPL well in advance of the WWDC:

"...  I want to point out a developing setup in AAPL that from a technical perspective could have profound directional implications going forward. For a name that has not been in the sweet spot of the AI juggernaut during the past year, AAPL certainly has attracted capital for the past month, climbing from its 4/19/24 low at 163.56-- where the price structure peered into the abyss from year-long Distribution Top formation-- to today's high at 192.82, which represents an 18% advance in just 30 days. 

"More to the point, however, is that AAPL has recovered to within 3.5% of its ATH, which if hurdled and sustained, will trigger a powerful intermediate-term buy signal in my pattern setup work that projects to 220-224, and thereafter, to 232-237. In other words, if AAPL climbs and sustains at new ATHs, the prior 12-month Distribution Top formation morphs into a sideways, bullish digestion period and pattern that will have the potential to catapult AAPL much higher. No doubt, AAPL still has work to do, but it does seem that Tim Cook and Company are playing the AI hype and tease game to perfection, especially into the WWDC (Worldwide Developers Conference) from June 10 to June 14.

"From a technical perspective, as long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above 188.25/30, the setup is very bullish and argues for a run at the ATH sooner than later. However, if 199.25/30 is violated within some magnitude of correction of the near 30 point, four week advance, then the weakness must be contained above 180.00/50. Only a break of 180.40 neutralizes the very bullish scenario potential described above, and will leave AAPL in a vulnerable technical position that will point to a test of critical intermediate term support from 170 down to 163.50...  For now, given the current setup and the bullish structure of the April-May 2024 upmove, I will be betting on Tim Cook to deliver for AAPL shareholders... last is 191.11..."

Fast-forward to last week's close at 196.89 (+3% from Mike's May 22 post to our members).  The time has come for Apple to strut its stuff tomorrow (June 10), as it is up just 2.3% since the beginning of 2024 (albeit 20% above its April 19 low at 163.56).  A positive reaction to whatever news emerges from the WWDC can potentially thrust AAPL above an 11-month resistance plateau from 196.40 to 199.60 that will project upside follow-through target zones of 220-224 and 230-232.

Conversely, a negative reaction to the WWDC will leave AAPL vulnerable to probing -- and perhaps breaking -- key near-term support starting at 191.50 that extends down to 186.30, which must contain forthcoming weakness to avert triggering technical sell-signals in Mike's work. 

Login this week to join Mike and MPTrader members as they navigate the markets ahead of an exciting and consequential week of opportunistic analysis and discussion focused on NVDA, AAPL, and TSLA, as well as many other individual equity names, macro indices and ETFs, sector ETFs, precious metals, and Bitcoin.

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