Anticipating AMZN's Recovery Rally
by Mike Paulenoff
September 6, 2021 • 12:00 AM EDT
On August 11, Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader members to a significant upside reversal signal in AMZN.
Mike wrote that "the 500 point decline is nearing downside exhaustion," noting a preferred downside target zone of 3180-3200.
Fast-forward to August 20, when AMZN pressed to a new multi-month corrective low at 3175.76.
At that point, Mike wrote: "The new corrective low was satisfied amid a stair-step pattern that has the right look of completion, multiple momentum divergences, and a Daily DeMark reading of 9 (using Combo), all of which combine to 'warn' us that at the very least, a sharp reaction rally -- or the start of a new upleg -- is approaching fast. To gain upside traction, and to imbue the chart set up with additional confidence, AMZN needs to claw its way above 3230 on a closing basis to trigger initial buy signals in my work."
AMZN indeed triggered preliminary upside reversal signals at and above 3230 on August 23, and climbed to a high of 3527 on September 1, a gain of 11% above Mike's corrective target low.
Since then AMZN has stalled and pulled back to the 3475 area.
What's next for AMZN? A deeper pullback after an 11% recovery rally, or a resumption of strength?
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Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
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More Top Calls From Mike
This past Monday, with Nike (NKE) poised to report earnings later in the week, Mike Paulenoff told MPTrader members that "NKE is vulnerable to a press into the 140-143 target zone either ahead of, or in reaction to, the earnings news."
NKE was trading at 161.75 at the time, and by the week's end the stock was 149.59, having hit a low of 148.
Back on August 18th, nearly two weeks ahead of ZM's (Zoom Video Communications) earnings report, Mike Paulenoff cautioned MPTrader members about the stock.
Mike wrote: "The price structure, which has pressed relentlessly lower (15%) since its 8/05 rally high at 404.35, is probing -- and trading below -- its 100 DMA, now at 345.67, and is considerably beneath its 200 DMA, now down-sloping at 367.20.
In our Top Call article a month ago, we told you about how Mike Paulenoff called AAPL's upside continuation, with the expectation that the stock could extend a little higher before upside exhaustion.
AAPL, indeed, went on to stair-step higher to reach a high of 157.26 high last week, overshooting the upper boundary of Mike's 153-156 projected high-zone by just 0.8%. It then proceeded to initiate the expected bout of weakness that accelerated to the downside this past Friday.
On August 3, Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader members to the developing setup in AAPL that also would eventually impact the broader market:
Mike wrote: "AAPL continues to levitate within a high level digestion period and pattern off of its ATH at 150 hit on 7/15. All of the action since mid-July certainly resembles a Triangle pattern atop the May-July upleg from 121.68 to 150.
Probably the first price pattern both fundamental and technical investors learn to recognize is a Head and Shoulders Top. Rightly or wrongly, it is the Holy Grail of technical formations, striking fear into holders of the stock, index, ETF, or commodity that exhibits such a technical set up, while eliciting an opposite reaction from put owners and short sellers who anticipate huge gains captured by impending weakness.
