Anticipating IWM's Turns - Market Analysis for Jan 16th, 2021
by Mike Paulenoff
January 16, 2021 • 12:26 PM EST
Last Wednesday afternoon (Jan 13), with the IWM at 210.76, Mike Paulenoff told MPTrader members:
"The Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF is just about 0.5% off of its all time high. As long as any weakness is contained above 204.30, my near-term pattern set up from the 1/04 pullback low at 190.94 is poised for still higher ATHs above 211.73."
The IWM reached a high of 215 the very next day.
Meanwhile, Mike had also cautioned: "Juxtaposed against the above-mentioned constructive near-term pattern set up is a glaring negative Momentum Divergence (11/09 and 1/07), that provides us with an anecdotal warning signal that strength is on borrowed time, nearing exhaustion. Take the signal for what it's worth-- a warning, until the music stops in IWM."
In fact, on Friday, with IWM at 211.27, he wrote: "All eyes on 209.20 nearest support in IWM, which, if violated and sustained, will trigger an initial sell signal."
IWM pressed to a low at 208.26, triggering that preliminary sell signal.
What's next for IWM? Friday's move is certainly a warning signal that IWM is vulnerable to a meaningful correction after climbing 48% from its 9/24 pivot low, far outpacing the 22% gain for QQQ, and the 19% gain in SPY during the same time period. The Small Cap Index has a habit of leading into BOTH directions, which is precisely why Mike is closely tracking its set up for MPTrader members.
Join Mike in our MPTrader trading room for his technical updates and member conversation about IWM, as well as many stocks, ETFs, Indices, and commodities.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts
on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including
international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
On January 2, 2026, this is what I posted about CAVA (Cava Group Casual Mediterranean Cuisine) to MPTrader members:After CAVA's meteoric climb from 29.00 in October 2023 to an ATH at 172.65 in November 2024, the stock rolled over into a relentless decline that hit its low at 43.
On the morning of April 9, 2026, this is what I posted about SMR (NuScale Power Corp) to our Discussion Room for MPTrader members:SMR (Nuscale Power Corp)-- Three views of this beleaguered, former high-flying modular nuclear power producer that has been in the grasp of a relentless six-month, 84% bear phase:-- From the perspective of my 4-hour Chart, SMR has the right look of nearing the completion of the downleg that started at the Jan. 2026 recovery rally high of 22.
On the morning of April 7, 2026, this is what I posted for MPTrader members about my interpretation of the near-term technical setup exhibited by META:My preferred technical scenario for META argues that the stock established a significant near-term low at 520.00 on 3/27/26 that resides within an August 2025 to March 2026, incomplete larger corrective process.
Thirty minutes after the opening bell on November 24, 2025, I posted the following heads-up to MPTrader members about the technical setup in META:META has the right technical look of a significant U-Turn to the upside after completing a 27% August-November correction from 796.25 (8/15/25) to 580.32 (11/21/25)... To gain more powerful upside traction, META needs to climb and sustain above nearest-term resistance at 614.70 to 616.50, which if (when) taken out, will open a higher price pathway to the 670 area to challenge the down-sloping 200 DMA... Last is 609.27...
Last Friday morning, to calm frazzled nerves amid a 1% pre-market plunge that was threatening to complete a 100% give back of the prior week's 3.
