Budding Technical Breakout In Lagging Energy Name
by Mike Paulenoff
February 12, 2022 • 10:42 AM EST
Last Monday afternoon (Feb 7), Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader members to a latent technical breakout in the bullish energy sector.
Mike wrote: "VLO (Valero Energy) is an energy (Oil Refining) name that appears to be accelerating into a new upleg to play catch-up to the likes of other sector (Drilling and Exploration) names such as HES, XOM, and MPC... Now 80-85 represents powerful multi-month support juxtaposed again upside potential to 105-108... Last is 89.08/09."
By the end of last week, VLO had climbed to Friday's intraday high at 93.77, a full 5.2% above the level it was trading when Mike alerted members to the budding technical breakout in this "lagging" energy name.
Of course, the energy sector, in general, has been all the rage of late, up over 25% YTD, and one of only two sectors of the S&P 500 that is actually positive for 2022 thus far (the other is the Financials at +2.5%). A number of bullish factors have combined to form a "perfect storm," owing mainly to persistent inflationary pressures, supply deficiencies, and greatly heightened geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, a not-insignificant Eastern European Oil producer of 55,000 to 60,000 barrels per day.
What next for VLO? The dominant near- and intermediate-term uptrends remain very powerful, and project higher prices in the days and weeks ahead, but intraday monitoring of unfolding geopolitical events will inject additional volatility into the energy sector, in general, that will impact the price action of VLO as well.
Join Mike and MPTrader members for their intraday technical and fundamental discussions about VLO, as well as many other individual stocks, sector ETFs, macro indices, cryptocurrencies, and commodities.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts
on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including
international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
Last Tuesday afternoon, hours before CAVA (Cava Group) was scheduled to report Earnings, this is what I posted for MPTrader members:CAVA reports Earnings after today's close. Approaching the news, CAVA is circling 61, a full 40% beneath its April 2026 high at 98.79, amid an unconfirmed new corrective low at 60.21 yesterday (8/10/26), leaving CAVA positioned for a "buy-the-news" setup (the opposite of a sell-the-news setup in a name that is up 30% to 40% approaching Earnings).
Good Sunday Afternoon, MPTraders! Last Thursday afternoon, ahead of AAPL's Earnings, this is what we discussed about the stock's probable price path in reaction to the news:Unless AAPL produces something extraordinary, or otherwise announces some unknown bullish catalyst, my pattern work has a very difficult time expecting anything other than a "best-case" sell-the-news scenario in reaction to Earnings. I can make a compelling argument that the upleg from the 6/26/26 low at 273.33 to the 7/29/26 ATH at 344.
XOM (Exxon Mobil)-- Back on May 19, 2026, a fellow MPTrader member requested an update on XOM. This is what we discussed at that time:My attached Daily Chart setup shows my preferred scenario calling for a near-term peak of the current upmove from the 4/17 low at 141.97 to a target zone from 162 to 165, followed by a rollover and press lower that revisits and possibly breaks the 41/7 low, which also will complete the larger corrective process from the 3/30/26 ATH at 176.41.
Pharma Update: MRK and LLYOn Wednesday (6/24/26), this is what we discussed about MRK:MRK as well, which we see on my attached Daily Chart exhbits a VERY BULLISH technical setup-- quite the opposite of beleaguered PFE. My pattern work argues that all of the price action from the 2/25/26 high at 125.14 represents a high-level bullish digestion period and pattern atop the major upleg from the May 2025 low at 73.31.
On January 2, 2026, this is what I posted about CAVA (Cava Group Casual Mediterranean Cuisine) to MPTrader members:After CAVA's meteoric climb from 29.00 in October 2023 to an ATH at 172.65 in November 2024, the stock rolled over into a relentless decline that hit its low at 43.
