Budding Upside Reversal Signal In AMZN
by Mike Paulenoff
March 5, 2023 • 2:07 PM EST
Several times every trading session, we receive requests for our technical setup work in a particular stock or ETF from members in our discussion room
Last Friday afternoon, MPT member Pawel asked for a review of AMZN. This was our response, posted to the coverage list:
"From a BIG Picture perspective shown on my attached Weekly Chart, my pattern and momentum work indicate that AMZN established a significant corrective low at 81.46 on 1/06/23 that ended the Bear Phase from its ATH at 188.85 on 7/13/22. All of the action since the 81.46 low-- up to the 2/02/23 rally high at 117.50, followed by the current decline to today's low at 90.39 represents an 'intervening downmove' ahead of the next powerful advance that should climb above 117.50 towards a 132-138 target zone."
We then drilled down a bit more, taking a more granular look at more recent price action:
"The $64,000 question is where the current decline will end? Based on my more granular view from my attached 4-Hour chart, until AMZN climbs above 95.00 I cannot rule out additional weakness that presses into the 86 to 90 next lower support zone, where I will be expecting signs of downside exhaustion...
"For now, either AMZN presses closer to 86.00 prior to an upside reversal, or takes off from today's low at 90.39 to trigger an upside reversal signal above 95.00... Last is 91.07."
Fast-forward to Friday's close, AMZN ended the session at 95.00, the high of the day, 4.3% above the price the stock was trading when we posted our update. Most pertinently for MPTraders, AMZN closed Friday's session pushing up against the consequential bullish reversal signal level of 95.00.
Heading into Monday's session, MPTrader members who are interested in AMZN will be watching both the price action in the stock as well as our follow-up commentary to see if we get the necessary price action to strengthen or weaken a budding upside reversal signal.
Join us early next week for our ongoing discussions about AMZN and many other individual equity names, ETFs, Macro Indices and ETFs, Commodities, Precious Metals, and Bitcoin. In addition, you will be able to participate in their exchange of views on the impact of Fed Chairman Powell's congressional testimony (Tuesday and Wednesday), ahead of next Friday's release of the all-important February Jobs Report.
On March 13, amid a broad discussion about the emerging bull phase developing in the precious metals and miners, Mike Paulenoff posted this about WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals) to our MPTrader discussion room:From a more Silver-Gold perspective (if FCX is perceived to be Copper-centric), let's notice that WPM strength is pushing up against its near-term resistance line in the vicinity of 45.
Right after the opening bell on the morning of October 20, 2023, Mike Paulenoff posted the following GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) commentary to our MPTrader Discussion Room:"For all of the long-suffering Gold Bugs... As we speak, GLD is attempting to take out key 5-month resistance lodged between 181.20 and 184.40, which if successful and sustained, will point GLD to 188-190 next... Last is 183.88...
During the afternoon session of February 15, this is what Mike Paulenoff posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room about the technical setup in the oil service company SLB (Schlumberger):"This name in the oil service sector exhibits a well-demarcated 4-year bullish channel with the SLB price structure upturning off of the lower boundary line in the vicinity of 47.00 (the 2/13/24 low) amid a glaring double non-confirmation of the weakness into the lower channel line.
On December 26, 2023, fellow MPTrader member FJB asked me the following question: Mike - do you feel comfortable giving some of your top sectors for next year if you have any? This was my response:In order of preference based on my technical setup work:1- XLV (Healthcare)2- XLB (Materials)3- XLE (Energy)4- XLI (Industrials)5- XLF (Financials)As of the close this past Friday, 3/15/24, YTD results showed XLV +6.58%, XLB +6.15%, XLI +7.06%, XLF +8.54%, and XLE (Energy) leading all sectors, at +9.27%.
On February 23, Mike Paulenoff posted the following timely commentary about the bond market to MPTrader members:"Benchmark 10-year YIELD and TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF)-- I am getting initial, but very strong technical signals that the backup in 10-year YIELD from the late-March low at 3.78% to yesterday's (2/22/24) high at 4.35% is nearing exhaustion ahead of a rollover into another downleg within the larger downleg off of the October 2023 high at 5.00% (see my attached Daily Chart).