Calling AAPL's Upside Continuation ... Ahead Of Upside Exhaustion
by Mike Paulenoff
August 15, 2021 • 1:59 PM EDT
On August 3, Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader members to the developing setup in AAPL that also would eventually impact the broader market:
Mike wrote: "AAPL continues to levitate within a high level digestion period and pattern off of its ATH at 150 hit on 7/15. All of the action since mid-July certainly resembles a Triangle pattern atop the May-July upleg from 121.68 to 150.00, which we should treat as a Bull Flag type of potential upside continuation pattern that projects next to 153-156, where I will be watching for signs of upside exhaustion. At the moment, only a decline that breaks support at 144.00 down through 142.50 will inflict damage to AAPL's set up-- and compromise the overall market as well. Last is 147.26."
All through this past week, Mike posted follow-up chart analysis and commentary tracking the price behavior of AAPL within its high-level bullish digestion pattern.
On Friday he wrote:
"Today my eyes will be watching the price behavior of AAPL. My pattern work argues that AAPL is emerging from a one month bullish Coil formation that projects to new ATHs above 150 (7/15), and that could extend into the 153 to 156 target zone. However, should such a scenario unfold, my pattern is also warning me that a climb above 150 at a minimum, and possibly to 153-156 will exhibit the 'right look' of a final thrust within the larger upleg from the 3/08/21 pullback low at 116.11. In other words, if AAPL pops from where it is now at 148.90 to 150.01-- +0.6%, and possibly to 153-156, or 4% to 5% higher, I will be looking for a significant downside reversal signal that also will warn us that the major averages are vulnerable to significant weakness as well."
As it turned out, AAPL climbed from 145.50 to 149.44 on Thursday and Friday, emerging from the four-week triangle formation (see Mike's chart below). On Friday APPL closed just under 149.00, positioning itself for upside continuation to eclipse the prior all-time high at 150.00 from July 15, where Mike's work will begin to watch closely for signs of exhaustion and reversal.
Join Mike and our members for "AAPL Watch" next week, with the stock poised to climb as much as 3%-5% to new all-time highs. But will those new highs be sustainable? If not, will the broad market stumble along with AAPL?
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
This past Tuesday, January 18, Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader subscribers to a developing breakdown in the Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF (IWM).
Mike noted that his Point & Figure chart exhibited an ominous topping formation that threatened to send the IWM nearly 20% lower (downside target near 170) if the Small Cap ETF, which was trading at 209.39 at the time, violated its support plateau and printed 207.50.
It all started back on September 13, 2021, with a potentially bullish technical signal in Mike Paulenoff's work on XOP (SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration ETF).
Back on November 23, 2021, Mike Paulenoff had this bullish analysis of VALE for MPTrader subscribers:
"My near and intermediate-term setup work is 'warning' me that finally, VALE has the right look of a pattern and momentum configuration that indicates it has put in a significant corrective low at 11.16 (11/16/21) in the aftermath of a 70% correction off of its 5/10/21 high at 23.68. Daily Momentum exhibits glaring positive divergences at every new reaction low since early October.
Last Tuesday morning, December 14, Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader members to a bullish technical setup in UBER.
Mike wrote about the stock, which pre-market had traded down to 34.88 tp a 13-month new low before 10% to 38.45 on headlines from a UBS Internet Conference:
"My NEAR and INTERMEDIATE TERM pattern and momentum work argue that today's Bear Trap is a VERY significant low (34.88), and ends the most recent corrective down move from the 10/08/21 recovery rally high at 48.
On the morning of November 24, when the ARK Innovation Fund ETF (ARKK) was circling 106, Mike Paulenoff cautioned MPTrader members about additional downside.
Mike wrote: "Earlier this AM, Ark Funds manager and 'guru' Cathie Wood was interviewed extensively on CNBC. Notwithstanding the fact that Wood IS 'talking her book,' she is nevertheless extremely compelling and is all about 'innovation figuring out the future,' which she says in 5 years will look nothing like the present.
