Calling The Breakdown In IWM ... What's Next?
by Mike Paulenoff
January 23, 2022 • 11:50 AM EST
This past Tuesday, January 18, Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader subscribers to a developing breakdown in the Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF (IWM).
Mike noted that his Point & Figure chart exhibited an ominous topping formation that threatened to send the IWM nearly 20% lower (downside target near 170) if the Small Cap ETF, which was trading at 209.39 at the time, violated its support plateau and printed 207.50.
IWM pressed beneath that level on Wednesday, prompting a follow-up by Mike in which he noted his next lower target was in the vicinity of 195.50.
That initial target came close to being reached by week's end, with IWM closing at its lows at 196.99.
Where is IWM headed next?
Mike's Daily Chart shows the vertically-falling price structure heading for a Fibonacci target zone projected into the 170 to 187 target zone that will amount to a 38% to 50% correction of the post-Pandemic bull phase.
The price action this coming Monday and Tuesday, in particular, will be extremely telling, especially ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Policy Statement and Powell press conference. Will IWM reach its projected downside targets and possibly reverse ahead of or in reaction to the Fed Meeting?
Join Mike and our members for ongoing intraday discussions of indices, ETFs, macro markets, individual stocks, cryptocurrencies, and precious metals as they navigate volatile but opportunistic markets.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
During the afternoon session of February 15, this is what Mike Paulenoff posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room about the technical setup in the oil service company SLB (Schlumberger):"This name in the oil service sector exhibits a well-demarcated 4-year bullish channel with the SLB price structure upturning off of the lower boundary line in the vicinity of 47.00 (the 2/13/24 low) amid a glaring double non-confirmation of the weakness into the lower channel line.
On December 26, 2023, fellow MPTrader member FJB asked me the following question: Mike - do you feel comfortable giving some of your top sectors for next year if you have any? This was my response:In order of preference based on my technical setup work:1- XLV (Healthcare)2- XLB (Materials)3- XLE (Energy)4- XLI (Industrials)5- XLF (Financials)As of the close this past Friday, 3/15/24, YTD results showed XLV +6.58%, XLB +6.15%, XLI +7.06%, XLF +8.54%, and XLE (Energy) leading all sectors, at +9.27%.
On February 23, Mike Paulenoff posted the following timely commentary about the bond market to MPTrader members:"Benchmark 10-year YIELD and TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF)-- I am getting initial, but very strong technical signals that the backup in 10-year YIELD from the late-March low at 3.78% to yesterday's (2/22/24) high at 4.35% is nearing exhaustion ahead of a rollover into another downleg within the larger downleg off of the October 2023 high at 5.00% (see my attached Daily Chart).
On October 27, 2023, Mike Paulenoff discussed his outlook for XBI (SPDR SP Biotech ETF) with our MPTrader members, writing:With the exception of a few months of recovery rally price action here and there, XBI remains in the grasp of a major bear phase off of its February 2021 peak at 174.79 into today's 17-month new low at 64.78. The $64,000 question is whether or not XBI is coming in for a successful test of its May-June 2022 lows at 61.78 and 62.
Nearly four months ago, on the morning of October 31, 2023, this is what I posted to our discussion room about NVDA (Nvidia Corp):NVDA pressed to a new 4-1/2 month low at 392.30 today, and ... the price structure is peering over the edge of a multi-month support plateau (396.50 to 407.64) that if sustained, will leave NVDA vulnerable to downside continuation toward filling the up-gap left behind on 5/25/23 from 305.40 to 366.35. So far, NVDA has bounced off of 392.30 and has just crossed above 400.