Calling The Moves In The US Dollar & Precious Metals
by Mike Paulenoff
November 12, 2022 • 10:55 AM EST
On September 30, 2022, Mike Paulenoff posted the following currency and precious metals commentary to our discussion room at MPTrader:
The Dollar and the PM Miners-- I can make a compelling technical argument that this week's major downside reversal in the US Dollar Index (DXY) from a multi-decade high at 114.78 to today's low at 111.58 (see my attached Daily Chart) exhibits bearish form, which informs me that DXY could be in the initial grasp of a significant topping process that will press the Greenback lower for weeks if not months to come.
With the foregoing Dollar Index analysis in mind, I can make an even more compelling, more confident argument that GDX (Gold Miners ETF) ENDED the entire April-September downleg from 52.20 to this past Monday's (9/26) low at 28.62. If the Dollar is entering either a period of stagnation or correction, it will cease to exert heretofore intense headwinds on the precious metals complex, and instead-- especially if the Dollar weakens-- could actually provide tailwinds for a period of appreciation for the metals in particular, and the commodity complex in general.
My attached Daily Chart of GDX shows this week's upside reversal action from a 2-1/2 year unconfirmed new low at 21.52 to today's high at 24.55 that is bumping up against its nearest term Aug-Sep resistance line, which if hurdled and sustained, will trigger upside projections to 25.50/70 next. To really gain upside traction, however, GDX needs to take out and hold above 27.60 for a run at its 200 DMA, now at 30.95.
Fast-forward to Friday's (Nov 11) close, we find DXY down a whopping 7.5% from its end-September high and GDX up 17% from Mike's initial chart post to our members -- and up 32% overall. The Dollar has developed a head of steam on the downside, and the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is in the grasp of the most powerful advance in nearly a year.
How much further does this inverse Dollar-GDX move have left? How long might it last? Join Mike Paulenof and MPTrader members this week for their ongoing technical and fundamental discussions and analysis of GDX, and DXY, as well as many other opportunistic setups in ETFs, individual stocks, macro indices, commodities, and Bitcoin.
Decades of experience matter! Mike Paulenoff started his career in 1980 as a precious and industrial metals commodity analyst for Smith Barney in NYC. He was thrust right into the fire of climbing commodity prices amid runaway inflation until Fed Chairman Paul Volcker suffocated rising price psychology with his draconian interest rate hikes that sent the US economy into the most serious recession since the Great Depression. Some of this sounds VERY familiar, no?
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts
on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including
international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
Last Tuesday afternoon, hours before CAVA (Cava Group) was scheduled to report Earnings, this is what I posted for MPTrader members:CAVA reports Earnings after today's close. Approaching the news, CAVA is circling 61, a full 40% beneath its April 2026 high at 98.79, amid an unconfirmed new corrective low at 60.21 yesterday (8/10/26), leaving CAVA positioned for a "buy-the-news" setup (the opposite of a sell-the-news setup in a name that is up 30% to 40% approaching Earnings).
Good Sunday Afternoon, MPTraders! Last Thursday afternoon, ahead of AAPL's Earnings, this is what we discussed about the stock's probable price path in reaction to the news:Unless AAPL produces something extraordinary, or otherwise announces some unknown bullish catalyst, my pattern work has a very difficult time expecting anything other than a "best-case" sell-the-news scenario in reaction to Earnings. I can make a compelling argument that the upleg from the 6/26/26 low at 273.33 to the 7/29/26 ATH at 344.
XOM (Exxon Mobil)-- Back on May 19, 2026, a fellow MPTrader member requested an update on XOM. This is what we discussed at that time:My attached Daily Chart setup shows my preferred scenario calling for a near-term peak of the current upmove from the 4/17 low at 141.97 to a target zone from 162 to 165, followed by a rollover and press lower that revisits and possibly breaks the 41/7 low, which also will complete the larger corrective process from the 3/30/26 ATH at 176.41.
Pharma Update: MRK and LLYOn Wednesday (6/24/26), this is what we discussed about MRK:MRK as well, which we see on my attached Daily Chart exhbits a VERY BULLISH technical setup-- quite the opposite of beleaguered PFE. My pattern work argues that all of the price action from the 2/25/26 high at 125.14 represents a high-level bullish digestion period and pattern atop the major upleg from the May 2025 low at 73.31.
On January 2, 2026, this is what I posted about CAVA (Cava Group Casual Mediterranean Cuisine) to MPTrader members:After CAVA's meteoric climb from 29.00 in October 2023 to an ATH at 172.65 in November 2024, the stock rolled over into a relentless decline that hit its low at 43.