Last Wednesday (July 14), with AAPL trading at 148.65 but off of its new all-time high at 150, Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader members to potentially consequential yellow caution flags emerging in his technical setup work.
This morning, JPM raised its Target Price to 175, one day after Citigroup raised its Target Price to 170. Do I hear 180... 185? Crickets at the moment. The Street is falling all over itself in its bullish view of AAPL. Of the 42 Wall Street analysts who cover Apple (and are monitored by Seeking Alpha), 32 are Very Bullish or Bullish, 7 are Neutral, and 3 are Bearish or Very Bearish. Clearly, The Street's love affair with AAPL continues unabated.
That said, to raise a Target Price atop a 20%+ up-move in just the last 8 weeks certainly takes nerve, but might not be the wisest move from a nearer term technical perspective.
AAPL hit a new ATH at 150 this AM, but acts tired, and as we discussed yesterday, exhibits glaring Momentum divergences that suggest the June-July portion of its up-leg is exhausted, and is in need of a rest or pullback. I am watching 145.80. If violated and sustained, my work will trigger initial signals that AAPL is entering a corrective period. Downside follow-through to and beneath 143.35 will exacerbate the selling pressure towards a retest of the 140 to 138 prior upside breakout plateau.
Fast-forward to Friday's close, and we find AAPL ended last week at 145.92, off of an intraday low at 145.88, which does not leave much of a cushion above Mike's next lower "line in the sand" at 145.80.
Apple is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday July 27th after the close. Given the stock's precarious near-term technical position as of Friday's close (see our chart), we should be mindful of AAPL weakness ahead of earnings.
A "healthy" pullback of 7% to 10% off of the recent all-time-high at 150 projects an optimal target window of 135 to 140 ahead of earnings.
Join us in our MPTrader discussion room for Mike's ongoing intraday analysis of AAPL, as well as many other stocks, ETFs, macro indices, cryptocurrencies, commodities that are of interest to our members.
On Monday morning, November 13, 2023, a full 5 trading sessions before the approaching November Options Expiration (OPEX) (11/17/23), I posted my chart-based commentary for our members:SPY-- Considering that Friday is November Option Expiration, where are the "magnetized strike prices" as we start OPEX week? Based on my attached Hourly Chart, the magnetized strike price zone spans from 436 to 441. Should SPY take out the upside barrier of 441, then the follow-through outlier magnetized target could be as high as 450 before or on Friday.
On October 23, 2023, ten days before the November 1st FOMC meeting and policy statement, I posted the following commentary about the downward-spiraling TLT (20+ year T-bond ETF):My attached 4-hour Chart of TLT shows that the relentless and near-vertical downtrend that commenced at the beginning of August from around 100 hit a new long-term low at 81.92 this AM, positioning it in my intermediate-term optimal downside target zone from 80 to 82.
On the afternoon of September 25, Mike Paulenoff posted a warning signal to MPTraders members about the developing acute oversold condition in RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies), writing:"RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies) hit a new multi-month corrective low of 71.02, down 33% from the 4/10/23 post-pandemic High at 106.02. Although RTX has violated my optimal target window of 73-75, the stair-step corrective pattern off of the 4/19/23 high at 104.
On October 3, Mike Paulenoff posted the following "Heads Up!" about GLD (SPDR Gold Trust, ETF) for MPTrader members: "GLD has pressed to an important technical inflection window from 169.50 down to 166.30, from where I will be expecting corrective downside exhaustion off of the 5/04/23 high at 191.36, and new buying interest. From a nearer-term perspective, given the acute oversold but CONFIRMED Momentum reading of 17.16 an hour ago, my preferred scenario argues for another loop down that marginally violates today's low at 168.
On September 28, 2023, with NVDA trading at 429.31, I told MPTrader members that my work is warning me about a complex technical setup that argues for a prolonged corrective scenario prior to a resumption of dominant uptrend strength. I posted the following:My near-term pattern and momentum work argue that since its 9/21/23 corrective low at 409.