Chronology of a SPY Technical Setup Into Option Expiration
by Mike Paulenoff
November 19, 2023 • 12:50 PM EST
On Monday morning, November 13, 2023, a full 5 trading sessions before the approaching November Options Expiration (OPEX) (11/17/23), I posted my chart-based commentary for our members:
SPY-- Considering that Friday is November Option Expiration, where are the "magnetized strike prices" as we start OPEX week? Based on my attached Hourly Chart, the magnetized strike price zone spans from 436 to 441. Should SPY take out the upside barrier of 441, then the follow-through outlier magnetized target could be as high as 450 before or on Friday. Conversely, should SPY slice beneath the downside barrier of 436.40, it will be vulnerable to follow-through into the 433 target level that will test the prior pivot low from last Fri. AM (11/10)... Last in SPY is 438.67...
Twenty-four hours later, on Tuesday morning (11/14/23) just minutes after the release of a much cooler-than-expected CPI Report, I posted a follow-up chart-based SPY comment: SPY-- Okay then! SPY is on the way to a "magnetized 450 Strike Price" ahead of or into Friday's November monthly Expiration... Last is 445.73...
The powerful 2% upside thrust in reaction to the CPI data created enough additional upside momentum and tailwinds to buoy and "levitate" SPY for the rest of the week, from Tuesday morning into Friday's expiration during which time SPY hit a high of 451.76, more than satisfying my "magnetized upside OPEX Strike Price" target of 450 discussed with MPTrader members during the first trading session of last week. From the time of my pre-market update on Monday morning, with SPY priced at 438.68 into Wednesday's high @ 451.76, SPY gained 3%. (Continued below the charts I posted last Monday, Tuesday, and Friday)...
What's next for SPY now that November OPEX is in the rearview mirror? Will the customary bullish Thanksgiving week seasonal-- and perhaps a positive reaction to NVDA earnings after Tuesday's close) continue to support SPY atop a 10.4% near-vertical advance just since October 27th, or will "gravity" and profit-taking emerge to outweigh the overwhelming tendency for equity prices to climb into and after the Thanksgiving Holiday?
Join me and MPTrader members for their continuous, actionable intraday technical and fundamental discussions of SPY, as well as many individual stock names, sector ETFs, macro indices, commodities, precious metals, and Bitcoin...
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
On April 22, 2025, I posted the following analysis about my technical setup work in XBI (SPDR SP Biotech ETF):XBI (SPDR SP Biotech ETF)-- Could it be? Could it be that the near-40% correction from the 11/11/24 multi-year high at 105.47 to the 4/09/25 low at 66.66 fully discounted all the bad news in this sector? From a BIG Picture perspective, my attached Daily Chart shows this month's spike low into the vicinity of the previous major corrective low-zone starting in May 2022.
In the early afternoon on April 11, this was my note to our members:"IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF)-- From a trading perspective, anyone who is in sync with the Bitcoin setup might consider owning IBIT (iShares Bitcoin ETF) against a stop below its 4/07/25 low at 42.98 (see my attached Daily Chart below)...
Last Thursday (4/17/25) afternoon, ahead of NFLX (Netflix) post-close earnings report and the three-day Good Friday holiday weekend, we discussed the technical setup and whether or not the NFLX pattern was positioned to react positively to the news : The NFLX setup heading into Earnings later today is favorable for upside continuation above the prior two rally highs at 993.45 (4/15) and 998.70 (3/25), but not to a new ATH above 1064.
Last Thursday afternoon (4/10/25), the commentary below is what I discussed with MPTrader members about my Big Picture technical setup work: Tomorrow is the final session of the week. We get some big bank Earnings and PPI before the open, and more than likely, one or more POTUS televised events that undoubtedly will move markets one way or other. Technically, tomorrow's (Friday) close will be important to my Weekly Chart Work.
At the beginning of last week, fellow members Rayray and GordonGekko asked for my technical setup work on BX (Blackstone Inc). This is what we discussed on the morning of March 25, 2025:My attached Daily Chart shows the November 2024 to mid-March 2025 correction (-32%) followed by the recovery rally from 135.60 to 153.18.