Declining Yield, Rising TLT Follow Our Technical Script

by Mike Paulenoff
March 10, 2024 • 4:30 PM EDT
On February 23, Mike Paulenoff posted the following timely commentary about the bond market to MPTrader members:
"Benchmark 10-year YIELD and TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF)-- I am getting initial, but very strong technical signals that the backup in 10-year YIELD from the late-March low at 3.78% to yesterday's (2/22/24) high at 4.35% is nearing exhaustion ahead of a rollover into another downleg within the larger downleg off of the October 2023 high at 5.00% (see my attached Daily Chart). Although YIELD is down only about 5 to 6 bps from yesterday's high at 4.35%, both my pattern and momentum work from the December low to the February high are starting to waffle, which is whispering to us to be careful about expecting additional upside on the long end of the curve."
Mike then transitioned his analysis of yield into a potentially actionable technical setup in the TLT (20+ year T-bond ETF):
"TLT is also behaving as though it has reached downside exhaustion and has completed the larger correction from the 12/27/23 high at 100.58 to Wednesday's (2/21/24) low at 92.07, which incidentally, amounts to about a 45% retracement of the prior major upleg (see my attached 4-Hour Chart). TLT has turned up for no particular reason and has climbed from 92.07 to 93.27. To really generate upside traction, however, TLT needs to climb through resistance from 93.75 to 94.55. At the moment, TLT exhibits the requisite technical setup to make a run at that resistance zone. Last is 93.27..."
Fast-forward 2-1/2 weeks, and we see on Mike's current Daily YIELD and 4-Hour TLT Charts that 10-year YIELD has plunged to last Friday's low at 4.04% -- a 6% decline from the 4.30% level it was at when Mike issued his February 23 alert. Meanwhile TLT has rallied sharply to last Thursday's high at 96.85, a full 3.8% above its price at Mike's alert.
This coming week, bond market traders and investors will be challenged by Tuesday's potentially consequential CPI inflation data, and again by Thursday's PPI, with Retail Sales data also lurking ahead on Thursday morning.
Is Mike's setup work ahead of the data indicating a likely directional market response to the data? Do yourself a huge favor by logging in this week and joining Mike's braintrust for their intraday technical and fundamental discussions about the bond market as well as individual stocks, sector ETFs, macro indices, commodities, and crypto.


Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
On January 6, 2025, this is what I discussed with MPTrader members about the Chinese equity names--Alibaba (BABA) in particular:BABA-- For anyone who wants an outlier contrarian play for the first two-quarters of the Trump Agenda, let's consider BABA. Purely from a technical perspective, I can make a compelling technical argument that the 12/20/24 low at 81.5 ended the larger correction off of the Oct 2024 upleg (from 71.80) high at 121.06. To confirm the low, any weakness must hold support at 81.50-83.
Never a dull moment since January 20, 2025! This weekend, POTUS imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and 10% on China, which go into effect on Tuesday. From an initial market perspective, tariff trade war fears have triggered a risk-off reaction from Bitcoin-- the only highly liquid weekend market that can give us insight into what to expect for Sunday evening and Monday morning trading.
On December 27, 2024, with META trading at 595.26, this is what I posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room in response to a member's question:My pattern work from the October 2023 low at 279.40 to the December 2024 ATH at 638.40 (+128%) tells me that META is at a technical crossroad now... META's most recent upleg from the 11/19/24 low at 547.71 to the 12/11/24 ATH at 638.40 has the "right look" of a completed advance.
At the close of trading on December 18, 2024, this was my final thought posted to our discussion room at MPTrader.com:ES (March 2024 E-mini SP 500)-- Stating the obvious: Today's reaction to the FOMC Rate CUT (!!) inflicted serious near-term technical damage to the dominant, post-August uptrend... Last 5960.75...Thirty minutes after the close on December 18, 2024, I followed up with this commentary for MPTraders:My preliminary "conclusion" about today's outsized 3.
On December 20, 2024, this is what we discussed about the relentless four-week correction from NVDA's ATH at 152.89 (11/21/24) to a low at 126.35 on 12/20/24:Three Times is a Charm? For the third time this week, NVDA spiked down into the lower reaches of my optimal corrective target window from 132 to 125-- this AM representing the latest spike low at 126.35-- and for the third time, buyers emerged, propelling NVDA higher to 130-132. As we speak, NVDA is trading at 131.