Declining Yield, Rising TLT Follow Our Technical Script
by Mike Paulenoff
March 10, 2024 • 4:30 PM EDT
On February 23, Mike Paulenoff posted the following timely commentary about the bond market to MPTrader members:
"Benchmark 10-year YIELD and TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF)-- I am getting initial, but very strong technical signals that the backup in 10-year YIELD from the late-March low at 3.78% to yesterday's (2/22/24) high at 4.35% is nearing exhaustion ahead of a rollover into another downleg within the larger downleg off of the October 2023 high at 5.00% (see my attached Daily Chart). Although YIELD is down only about 5 to 6 bps from yesterday's high at 4.35%, both my pattern and momentum work from the December low to the February high are starting to waffle, which is whispering to us to be careful about expecting additional upside on the long end of the curve."
Mike then transitioned his analysis of yield into a potentially actionable technical setup in the TLT (20+ year T-bond ETF):
"TLT is also behaving as though it has reached downside exhaustion and has completed the larger correction from the 12/27/23 high at 100.58 to Wednesday's (2/21/24) low at 92.07, which incidentally, amounts to about a 45% retracement of the prior major upleg (see my attached 4-Hour Chart). TLT has turned up for no particular reason and has climbed from 92.07 to 93.27. To really generate upside traction, however, TLT needs to climb through resistance from 93.75 to 94.55. At the moment, TLT exhibits the requisite technical setup to make a run at that resistance zone. Last is 93.27..."
Fast-forward 2-1/2 weeks, and we see on Mike's current Daily YIELD and 4-Hour TLT Charts that 10-year YIELD has plunged to last Friday's low at 4.04% -- a 6% decline from the 4.30% level it was at when Mike issued his February 23 alert. Meanwhile TLT has rallied sharply to last Thursday's high at 96.85, a full 3.8% above its price at Mike's alert.
This coming week, bond market traders and investors will be challenged by Tuesday's potentially consequential CPI inflation data, and again by Thursday's PPI, with Retail Sales data also lurking ahead on Thursday morning.
Is Mike's setup work ahead of the data indicating a likely directional market response to the data? Do yourself a huge favor by logging in this week and joining Mike's braintrust for their intraday technical and fundamental discussions about the bond market as well as individual stocks, sector ETFs, macro indices, commodities, and crypto.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts
on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including
international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
Last Tuesday afternoon, hours before CAVA (Cava Group) was scheduled to report Earnings, this is what I posted for MPTrader members:CAVA reports Earnings after today's close. Approaching the news, CAVA is circling 61, a full 40% beneath its April 2026 high at 98.79, amid an unconfirmed new corrective low at 60.21 yesterday (8/10/26), leaving CAVA positioned for a "buy-the-news" setup (the opposite of a sell-the-news setup in a name that is up 30% to 40% approaching Earnings).
Good Sunday Afternoon, MPTraders! Last Thursday afternoon, ahead of AAPL's Earnings, this is what we discussed about the stock's probable price path in reaction to the news:Unless AAPL produces something extraordinary, or otherwise announces some unknown bullish catalyst, my pattern work has a very difficult time expecting anything other than a "best-case" sell-the-news scenario in reaction to Earnings. I can make a compelling argument that the upleg from the 6/26/26 low at 273.33 to the 7/29/26 ATH at 344.
XOM (Exxon Mobil)-- Back on May 19, 2026, a fellow MPTrader member requested an update on XOM. This is what we discussed at that time:My attached Daily Chart setup shows my preferred scenario calling for a near-term peak of the current upmove from the 4/17 low at 141.97 to a target zone from 162 to 165, followed by a rollover and press lower that revisits and possibly breaks the 41/7 low, which also will complete the larger corrective process from the 3/30/26 ATH at 176.41.
Pharma Update: MRK and LLYOn Wednesday (6/24/26), this is what we discussed about MRK:MRK as well, which we see on my attached Daily Chart exhbits a VERY BULLISH technical setup-- quite the opposite of beleaguered PFE. My pattern work argues that all of the price action from the 2/25/26 high at 125.14 represents a high-level bullish digestion period and pattern atop the major upleg from the May 2025 low at 73.31.
On January 2, 2026, this is what I posted about CAVA (Cava Group Casual Mediterranean Cuisine) to MPTrader members:After CAVA's meteoric climb from 29.00 in October 2023 to an ATH at 172.65 in November 2024, the stock rolled over into a relentless decline that hit its low at 43.