Did You Anticipate U.S. Steel's 32% Move?
by Mike Paulenoff
March 14, 2021 • 12:00 AM EST
On Monday morning March 1, Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader members to a potential up-move in U.S. Steel (X):
"If an infrastructure plan really is doable early in the Biden Administration, and if the 440% upmove from the March 2020 low to the Jan. 2021 high has not discounted just about every conceivable growth scenario, then X is turning up into another upleg as we speak. As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained in the 16.40 to 15.85 support zone, then the 'apparent' Head and Shoulders top formation that is plainly visible is a major head fake prior to the initiation of a powerful next advance that projects to 26.20-27.40."
The stock, which was trading at 18.24 at the time, closed this week at 24.17. (See Friday's closing chart below.)
Mike has been guiding members on X since his post, as it crept higher, up and away from important "neckline" pattern support.
On Monday afternoon March 8, with the stock trading at 20.63, Mike wrote:
"My attached Daily Chart shows that today's strength has propelled X above its prior high at 20.12, to 20.68, which also is the first indication that the Head and Shoulders pattern that appeared to be maturing, is being invalidated right before our eyes. Typically, after a price structure tests the pattern's neckline, if it then pivots to the upside and climbs above the uppermost peak of the right shoulder-- and the strength is sustained, the top pattern inverts into a continuation of the dominant underlying larger uptrend. A close above 20.21 will go a long way towards invalidating the Head and Shoulders pattern, and instead, will trigger upside projections that indicate X is heading for a retest of its January high at 24.71."
The stock's intraday high of 24.46 came just pennies from that January high, and a full 32% above Mike's first alert about X on March 1.
Mike's decades of analyzing price pattern behavior recognized the potential for a failed Head and Shoulders top formation in X, and quickly communicated his skepticism to MPTrader members.
Yes, market experience matters, and Mike brings it to our discussion room every day in his analysis of stocks, stock index futures and indices, ETFs, macro indices, cryptocurrencies, precious metals, and more.
On March 10, 2025, fifteen minutes before the closing bell and Oracle's forthcoming Earnings Report, below was the analysis I posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room about ORCL:"... My preferred scenario indicates a negative reaction to the news that sends ORCL reeling to test important support at 139.50-141.20-- where ORCL MUST reverse to the upside to avert triggering still lower projections into the 118-123 (back the truck up) target window... Last is 149.32"...
Last October 21, 2024, I alerted MPTrader members to a Goldman Sachs upgrade of optical products retailer Warby Parker (WRBY) to Buy from Neutral. Goldman attached an 18.00 target price to the stock. At the time of my post to members, WRBY was trading at 17.55 in reaction to the GS upgrade, up 6% from the prior close, and just 2.5% from Goldman's 12-month target price.
On February 26, 2025, just 30 minutes before NVDA (Nvidia Corp) was scheduled to release its highly anticipated and potentially consequential Quarterly Earnings Report, I reiterated my most recent analysis uploaded before the opening bell. This is what I posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room:Technically, my Big Picture setup work on NVDA argues that the 2/03/25 low represented the END of a major correction that originated at NVDA's "orthodox" price high of 152.89 on 11/21/24-- the session following the company's November 20, 2024 Earnings report.
Before the market opening on February 4, 2025, hours after Palantir Technologies (PLTR) reported stellar Earnings, this is what I discussed with MPTrader members:In reaction to Earnings, PLTR has sustained strength above my "outlier" target zone of 96 to 100, which requires new upside pattern parameters. My optimal price path from atop the post-Earnings, 25% upmove points to an immediate objective of 105-08, followed by a contained pullback into the 95 area, ahead of a thrust toward 115-118 thereafter... Last is 103.50...
On January 6, 2025, this is what I discussed with MPTrader members about the Chinese equity names--Alibaba (BABA) in particular:BABA-- For anyone who wants an outlier contrarian play for the first two-quarters of the Trump Agenda, let's consider BABA. Purely from a technical perspective, I can make a compelling technical argument that the 12/20/24 low at 81.5 ended the larger correction off of the Oct 2024 upleg (from 71.80) high at 121.06. To confirm the low, any weakness must hold support at 81.50-83.
