GDX Outperforms Per our Call
On June 16, we noted to members that we expected the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF to outperform the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) due to the pattern of the relative-strength chart.
Charting the ratio of the SPY price over the price of the GDX, we noted a double-top formation that was (and continues to be) trending lower, warning us to expect the SPY to continue to underperform the gold-mining ETF.
Since that time, the GDX has climbed 11.7% -- with a 3.5% move alone this past week since we reiterated our call on July 8 -- while the SPY has appreciated only 1.4%.
Judging from the magnitude of the huge double-top and the angle of descent, the outperformance of the GDX and/or the underperformance of the SPY should continue -- and likely accelerate -- in the days and weeks ahead.
This bullish outlook is supported by the weekly, big-picture chart of the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, which continues to improve and strengthen, with the price structure looking like it is emerging from a high-level, three-week bullish digestion period.
If accurate, this analysis points toward upside continuation that tests the March rally peak at 28.03. If the March high is hurdled and sustained, the GDX should accelerate towards 31.30-32.20 thereafter.
More Top Calls From Mike
Back on June 26th, when nearby WTI Oil futures were circling $67/bbl, Mike Paulenoff issued a heads-up to MPTrader members about a potentially opportunistic technical setup developing in OXY (Occidental Petroleum), writing:"OXY pressed to a low at 55.58 this AM, which marginally violated the 5/11 low at 56.16, BUT held above the more technically significant March 2023 low at 55.51 prior to pivoting to the upside into positive territory, now trading at 57.47.
On Monday August 28, we posted a heads-up about FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) to our MPTrader members, writing: FCX (Copper, Gold, Oil) producer has the right technical look (and a positive momentum divergence at Friday's low) of a completed pullback (44.70 to 37.74) within its larger bullish multi-month Coil formation. Last Friday's (8/25/23) low at 37.74 represented a very healthy 15.6% correction off of the 7/31/23 rally peak at 44.70 and also amounted to an exact Fibonacci 62% retracement of the 5/24/23 to 7/31/23 advance from 33.06 to 44.70.
Top Call: NVDADuring the afternoon trading session of August 23, 2023, prior to the release of NVDA's (Nvidia Corp.) highly anticipated quarterly earnings report, we alerted our MPTrader members to our near-term forecast for NVDA, derived from my technical setup work heading into earnings.
A week ago Friday, August 10, with SPY (SPDR SP 500 ETF) trading at 446.05, Mike Paulenoff posted a chart commentary to MPTrader members indicating that his technical setup work on SPY was at a critical pattern inflection point.Mike wrote:"Based on today's action, I have come to the conclusion that the "orthodox low" of the decline from the 7/27 high (459.55)... ended at Tuesday's (8/08) low (445.27), and that an intervening counter-trend rally ended at today's (8/10) high (451.
This past Tuesday morning, August 8, Mike Paulenoff responded to a concerned statement from one of our MPTrader members about the TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF) possibly having turned up in a significant way, especially if weak China data and an "off-sides" crowded hedge fund short position in bonds gets scared (and runs to cover its shorts).