Getting The Jump On Energy ETF's 30% Spike ... What's Next?
Two months ago, on the afternoon of September 13, Mike Paulenoff brought to the attention of MPTrader members the intriguing and potentially opportunistic technical setup exhibited by the XOP -- the SPDR Oil and Gas Production and Exploration ETF.
Mike wrote: "I am not sure what the backstory is on this potentially very bullish technical setup will become (inflation, delivery problems, confrontation in the OPEC producing states, frigid winter in the US and Europe?), but one look at my attached Big Picture Chart suggests strongly that XOP has been under accumulation for nearly 2 years, 3 months, which has carved out a large inverse Head and Shoulders Bottom... XOP today is trading above ALL of my near and intermediate-term MAs, which are clustered together in a relatively tight area beneath the price structure, 'threatening' to propel XOP to the upside towards a confrontation with multi-year resistance at 98 to 100... if taken out, will trigger MUCH HIGHER PROJECTIONS for XOP."
The rest, as they say, is history! Within a week of Mike's "heads-up" to mptrader members, XOP was climbing sharply, a rally that spanned a 7-week period, and propelled the energy ETF to a 2-1/2 year high at 112.85 last Monday, a full 30% above the level XOP was trading (87.13) when Mike issued his "heads-up" technical alert.
What's next for XOP? Is the energy sector due for a pause? Will it participate and possibly drive a year-end rally in the benchmark indices? Join Mike and our MPTrader members for ongoing intraday discussions about energy and XOP, as well as many other stocks, macro indices, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and commodities.
More Top Calls From Mike
On Monday morning, November 13, 2023, a full 5 trading sessions before the approaching November Options Expiration (OPEX) (11/17/23), I posted my chart-based commentary for our members:SPY-- Considering that Friday is November Option Expiration, where are the "magnetized strike prices" as we start OPEX week? Based on my attached Hourly Chart, the magnetized strike price zone spans from 436 to 441. Should SPY take out the upside barrier of 441, then the follow-through outlier magnetized target could be as high as 450 before or on Friday.
On October 23, 2023, ten days before the November 1st FOMC meeting and policy statement, I posted the following commentary about the downward-spiraling TLT (20+ year T-bond ETF):My attached 4-hour Chart of TLT shows that the relentless and near-vertical downtrend that commenced at the beginning of August from around 100 hit a new long-term low at 81.92 this AM, positioning it in my intermediate-term optimal downside target zone from 80 to 82.
On the afternoon of September 25, Mike Paulenoff posted a warning signal to MPTraders members about the developing acute oversold condition in RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies), writing:"RTX (formerly Raytheon Technologies) hit a new multi-month corrective low of 71.02, down 33% from the 4/10/23 post-pandemic High at 106.02. Although RTX has violated my optimal target window of 73-75, the stair-step corrective pattern off of the 4/19/23 high at 104.
On October 3, Mike Paulenoff posted the following "Heads Up!" about GLD (SPDR Gold Trust, ETF) for MPTrader members: "GLD has pressed to an important technical inflection window from 169.50 down to 166.30, from where I will be expecting corrective downside exhaustion off of the 5/04/23 high at 191.36, and new buying interest. From a nearer-term perspective, given the acute oversold but CONFIRMED Momentum reading of 17.16 an hour ago, my preferred scenario argues for another loop down that marginally violates today's low at 168.
On September 28, 2023, with NVDA trading at 429.31, I told MPTrader members that my work is warning me about a complex technical setup that argues for a prolonged corrective scenario prior to a resumption of dominant uptrend strength. I posted the following:My near-term pattern and momentum work argue that since its 9/21/23 corrective low at 409.