Getting The Jump On Energy ETF's 30% Spike ... What's Next?
by Mike Paulenoff
November 14, 2021 • 12:00 AM EST
Two months ago, on the afternoon of September 13, Mike Paulenoff brought to the attention of MPTrader members the intriguing and potentially opportunistic technical setup exhibited by the XOP -- the SPDR Oil and Gas Production and Exploration ETF.
Mike wrote: "I am not sure what the backstory is on this potentially very bullish technical setup will become (inflation, delivery problems, confrontation in the OPEC producing states, frigid winter in the US and Europe?), but one look at my attached Big Picture Chart suggests strongly that XOP has been under accumulation for nearly 2 years, 3 months, which has carved out a large inverse Head and Shoulders Bottom... XOP today is trading above ALL of my near and intermediate-term MAs, which are clustered together in a relatively tight area beneath the price structure, 'threatening' to propel XOP to the upside towards a confrontation with multi-year resistance at 98 to 100... if taken out, will trigger MUCH HIGHER PROJECTIONS for XOP."
The rest, as they say, is history! Within a week of Mike's "heads-up" to mptrader members, XOP was climbing sharply, a rally that spanned a 7-week period, and propelled the energy ETF to a 2-1/2 year high at 112.85 last Monday, a full 30% above the level XOP was trading (87.13) when Mike issued his "heads-up" technical alert.
What's next for XOP? Is the energy sector due for a pause? Will it participate and possibly drive a year-end rally in the benchmark indices? Join Mike and our MPTrader members for ongoing intraday discussions about energy and XOP, as well as many other stocks, macro indices, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and commodities.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts
on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including
international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
Last Tuesday afternoon, hours before CAVA (Cava Group) was scheduled to report Earnings, this is what I posted for MPTrader members:CAVA reports Earnings after today's close. Approaching the news, CAVA is circling 61, a full 40% beneath its April 2026 high at 98.79, amid an unconfirmed new corrective low at 60.21 yesterday (8/10/26), leaving CAVA positioned for a "buy-the-news" setup (the opposite of a sell-the-news setup in a name that is up 30% to 40% approaching Earnings).
Good Sunday Afternoon, MPTraders! Last Thursday afternoon, ahead of AAPL's Earnings, this is what we discussed about the stock's probable price path in reaction to the news:Unless AAPL produces something extraordinary, or otherwise announces some unknown bullish catalyst, my pattern work has a very difficult time expecting anything other than a "best-case" sell-the-news scenario in reaction to Earnings. I can make a compelling argument that the upleg from the 6/26/26 low at 273.33 to the 7/29/26 ATH at 344.
XOM (Exxon Mobil)-- Back on May 19, 2026, a fellow MPTrader member requested an update on XOM. This is what we discussed at that time:My attached Daily Chart setup shows my preferred scenario calling for a near-term peak of the current upmove from the 4/17 low at 141.97 to a target zone from 162 to 165, followed by a rollover and press lower that revisits and possibly breaks the 41/7 low, which also will complete the larger corrective process from the 3/30/26 ATH at 176.41.
Pharma Update: MRK and LLYOn Wednesday (6/24/26), this is what we discussed about MRK:MRK as well, which we see on my attached Daily Chart exhbits a VERY BULLISH technical setup-- quite the opposite of beleaguered PFE. My pattern work argues that all of the price action from the 2/25/26 high at 125.14 represents a high-level bullish digestion period and pattern atop the major upleg from the May 2025 low at 73.31.
On January 2, 2026, this is what I posted about CAVA (Cava Group Casual Mediterranean Cuisine) to MPTrader members:After CAVA's meteoric climb from 29.00 in October 2023 to an ATH at 172.65 in November 2024, the stock rolled over into a relentless decline that hit its low at 43.
