Getting The Jump On Energy ETF's 30% Spike ... What's Next?
by Mike Paulenoff
November 13, 2021 • 11:00 PM EST
Two months ago, on the afternoon of September 13, Mike Paulenoff brought to the attention of MPTrader members the intriguing and potentially opportunistic technical setup exhibited by the XOP -- the SPDR Oil and Gas Production and Exploration ETF.
Mike wrote: "I am not sure what the backstory is on this potentially very bullish technical setup will become (inflation, delivery problems, confrontation in the OPEC producing states, frigid winter in the US and Europe?), but one look at my attached Big Picture Chart suggests strongly that XOP has been under accumulation for nearly 2 years, 3 months, which has carved out a large inverse Head and Shoulders Bottom... XOP today is trading above ALL of my near and intermediate-term MAs, which are clustered together in a relatively tight area beneath the price structure, 'threatening' to propel XOP to the upside towards a confrontation with multi-year resistance at 98 to 100... if taken out, will trigger MUCH HIGHER PROJECTIONS for XOP."
The rest, as they say, is history! Within a week of Mike's "heads-up" to mptrader members, XOP was climbing sharply, a rally that spanned a 7-week period, and propelled the energy ETF to a 2-1/2 year high at 112.85 last Monday, a full 30% above the level XOP was trading (87.13) when Mike issued his "heads-up" technical alert.
What's next for XOP? Is the energy sector due for a pause? Will it participate and possibly drive a year-end rally in the benchmark indices? Join Mike and our MPTrader members for ongoing intraday discussions about energy and XOP, as well as many other stocks, macro indices, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and commodities.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
On March 11, with AAPL in a month-long down-leg and trading at 156.34, Mike Paulenoff posted a relatively bullish analysis for MPTrader members, writing:
"I am watching AAPL more closely than usual these days, as a bellwether for the health/vulnerability of the overall market.
Back on March 1, 2022, Mike Paulenoff posted a technical "heads-up" about JPM for members of MPTrader.com, writing:
"JPM has broken down in glaring fashion from a 12-month Top Formation that my pattern work addressed four weeks ago in case JPM sustained beneath 139-140. Today's low at 134.15 violated my shallowest target zone of 135.50-137.50, and points next to 128-130, with an outlier target zone in the vicinity of 115.
Last Monday morning, May 2, as the equity market careened to the downside ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting and the prospect of the biggest rate hike in decades (50 bps), Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader members to a potentially significant developing technical setup in AMZN, which had hit a new 13-month low.
Mike wrote: "AMZN pressed to a new corrective low at 2367.50 this AM, a full 37% beneath its ATH.
On Thursday, April 14, Mike Paulenoff cautioned MPTader members about possible near-term upside exhaustion in YIELD and downside exhaustion in longer-term bond prices (and the TLT), writing:
"10 Year YIELD spiked to a new multi-year high at 2.84% today, but Daily Momentum remains well below yesterday's Momentum high, which is our first indication that perhaps the vertical assault in benchmark YIELD is nearing upside exhaustion.
JPM (JP Morgan) reports quarterly earnings this coming Wednesday during pre-market hours. Investor reaction to this particular report is positioned to have a significant influence on the price of the stock. JPM's outspoken and high profile CEO Jamie Dimon already has warned us that changing (i.e.
