Getting The Jump On MPC's Rally

by Mike Paulenoff
April 3, 2022 • 6:50 PM EDT
On Monday March 21 Mike Paulenoff posted a bullish alert on MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corp) to MPTrader members, writing:
"MPC popped out of my research over the weekend largely because its technical setup argues that all of the action off of its February high at 81.39 (see my attached Daily Chart) has carved out a high-level bullish digestion period and pattern above 72.50, and if preserved, projects to a thrust into a new upleg above 81.39 towards my next optimal target zone of 88 to 92 thereafter. Today's up-gap open and climb above the prior rally peak (79.93 in 3/11) has the right look of the initiation of a new upleg. As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above my first warnings level at 75.50, my work will remain 'very friendly' to higher prices in MPC."
MPC was trading at 79.38 at the time, and within 36 hours of Mike's post the stock was off to the races. It thrust into the anticipated new upleg that propelled prices relentlessly higher for a 10-session stretch that hit a high of 87.10 last Friday, April 1, 2022, a full 9.7% above the price when Mike issued his alert.
In Mike's MPC analysis posted this past Friday morning, he commented: "While the price of oil is under pressure, oil exploration names remain bid this AM... We see MPC indeed thrust out of a bullish Coil formation back on 3/21 and has not looked back since, climbing to a new high at 86.68 as we speak this AM, en route to my next optimal target zone of 88-92. Only a reversal and close beneath 82.60 will argue that the current upleg has peaked... Last is 86.64."
MPC is another example of Mike's actionable tactical technical signals he posts to our discussion room multiple times during trading hours every day, in addition to religiously discussing and answering member inquiries about individual stocks, macro indices, equity futures indices, ETFs, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.
Join Mike and our members for this week's idea generation that is designed to help you benefit and profit from trend analysis in the macros indices, energy, autos, financials, big technology, and much more.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts
on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including
international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
Last Tuesday afternoon, hours before CAVA (Cava Group) was scheduled to report Earnings, this is what I posted for MPTrader members:CAVA reports Earnings after today's close. Approaching the news, CAVA is circling 61, a full 40% beneath its April 2026 high at 98.79, amid an unconfirmed new corrective low at 60.21 yesterday (8/10/26), leaving CAVA positioned for a "buy-the-news" setup (the opposite of a sell-the-news setup in a name that is up 30% to 40% approaching Earnings).
Good Sunday Afternoon, MPTraders! Last Thursday afternoon, ahead of AAPL's Earnings, this is what we discussed about the stock's probable price path in reaction to the news:Unless AAPL produces something extraordinary, or otherwise announces some unknown bullish catalyst, my pattern work has a very difficult time expecting anything other than a "best-case" sell-the-news scenario in reaction to Earnings. I can make a compelling argument that the upleg from the 6/26/26 low at 273.33 to the 7/29/26 ATH at 344.
XOM (Exxon Mobil)-- Back on May 19, 2026, a fellow MPTrader member requested an update on XOM. This is what we discussed at that time:My attached Daily Chart setup shows my preferred scenario calling for a near-term peak of the current upmove from the 4/17 low at 141.97 to a target zone from 162 to 165, followed by a rollover and press lower that revisits and possibly breaks the 41/7 low, which also will complete the larger corrective process from the 3/30/26 ATH at 176.41.
Pharma Update: MRK and LLYOn Wednesday (6/24/26), this is what we discussed about MRK:MRK as well, which we see on my attached Daily Chart exhbits a VERY BULLISH technical setup-- quite the opposite of beleaguered PFE. My pattern work argues that all of the price action from the 2/25/26 high at 125.14 represents a high-level bullish digestion period and pattern atop the major upleg from the May 2025 low at 73.31.
On January 2, 2026, this is what I posted about CAVA (Cava Group Casual Mediterranean Cuisine) to MPTrader members:After CAVA's meteoric climb from 29.00 in October 2023 to an ATH at 172.65 in November 2024, the stock rolled over into a relentless decline that hit its low at 43.