Getting The Jump on Ford's 30% Rally In 10 Weeks

by Mike Paulenoff
August 14, 2022 • 12:27 PM EDT
On May 25, Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader members to a preliminary upside reversal signal in F (Ford). The stock at the time was trading at 12.40, up from its then multi-month corrective low at 12.07 established on May 20.
Mike instructed members that only a close below 11.00 would invalidate his preliminary bullish signal.
Then on June 10, with the major equity market indices in the grasp of a three-session plunge of 10% to 12% into what would become significant mid-June major corrective lows, Mike reiterated his bullish analysis about F, writing:
"F (Ford) remains on a Buy Signal generated by its price bottoming behavior since May 20th despite today's 3.9% drubbing in sympathy with the overall market. The 'bottoming behavior' will remain intact and viable unless and until F breaks to new corrective lows beneath 12.07 AND follows through below 11.00 (on a closing basis)."
During 8 of the 13 trading sessions between June 16 and July 6, F pressed to or marginally below 11.00 but never closed beneath Mike's close-only stop of 11.00, and by July 27 was trading at 13.15.
At that point, hours prior to Ford's earnings report, Mike posted another heads-up for MPTrader members, noting that the stock was "poised for upside continuation to challenge 14 -- the down-sloping 100 DMA."
As it turned out, investors and traders reacted positively to the earnings news, propelling F from its gap-up open on July 28 into last Friday's (August 12) high at 16.22, up a full 30% from Mike's initial alert.
F is an example of the risk management discipline Mike applies to the technical work that he communicates constantly to MPTrader members in every one of his intraday updates.
What's ahead for F as well as other auto names like GM and TSLA? Join Mike and MPTrader members for their intraday discussions and idea generation on individual names, ETFs, macro indices, commodities, and Bitcoin.
Last Tuesday afternoon, hours before CAVA (Cava Group) was scheduled to report Earnings, this is what I posted for MPTrader members:CAVA reports Earnings after today's close. Approaching the news, CAVA is circling 61, a full 40% beneath its April 2026 high at 98.79, amid an unconfirmed new corrective low at 60.21 yesterday (8/10/26), leaving CAVA positioned for a "buy-the-news" setup (the opposite of a sell-the-news setup in a name that is up 30% to 40% approaching Earnings).
Good Sunday Afternoon, MPTraders! Last Thursday afternoon, ahead of AAPL's Earnings, this is what we discussed about the stock's probable price path in reaction to the news:Unless AAPL produces something extraordinary, or otherwise announces some unknown bullish catalyst, my pattern work has a very difficult time expecting anything other than a "best-case" sell-the-news scenario in reaction to Earnings. I can make a compelling argument that the upleg from the 6/26/26 low at 273.33 to the 7/29/26 ATH at 344.
XOM (Exxon Mobil)-- Back on May 19, 2026, a fellow MPTrader member requested an update on XOM. This is what we discussed at that time:My attached Daily Chart setup shows my preferred scenario calling for a near-term peak of the current upmove from the 4/17 low at 141.97 to a target zone from 162 to 165, followed by a rollover and press lower that revisits and possibly breaks the 41/7 low, which also will complete the larger corrective process from the 3/30/26 ATH at 176.41.
Pharma Update: MRK and LLYOn Wednesday (6/24/26), this is what we discussed about MRK:MRK as well, which we see on my attached Daily Chart exhbits a VERY BULLISH technical setup-- quite the opposite of beleaguered PFE. My pattern work argues that all of the price action from the 2/25/26 high at 125.14 represents a high-level bullish digestion period and pattern atop the major upleg from the May 2025 low at 73.31.
On January 2, 2026, this is what I posted about CAVA (Cava Group Casual Mediterranean Cuisine) to MPTrader members:After CAVA's meteoric climb from 29.00 in October 2023 to an ATH at 172.65 in November 2024, the stock rolled over into a relentless decline that hit its low at 43.