On Friday morning August 26, Jay Powell delivered a very brief, but considerably more hawkish-than-expected Jackson Hole speech that for all intents and purposes ended and reversed the 19% recovery rally advance in the S&P.
That afternoon, with AAPL down 3% to 164.65, Mike Paulenoff posted a heads-up alert about AAPL to MPTrader members that called for continued downside in the most widely-followed name in the averages, writing:
"AAPL has pressed beneath its prior pullback low at 166.25 (8/24), which leaves it in a vulnerable position that projects into the 164.80 to 162.80 next lower target zone (already entered as we speak), but possibly in route to a test of its up-sloping 200 DMA, now at 160.88, prior to renewed buying interest."
In a related post, Mike equated the stock's 2.5% of weakness directly ahead to a decline in the E-mini September S&P into the 3980-4000 target zone.
The following Monday, August 29, Mike again followed up with pre-market commentary about more acutely unfolding AAPL weakness:
"AAPL has pressed to a pre-market low at 160.07... and initially sliced beneath its up-sloping 200 DMA (160.87 Friday Close), but has since popped above it again, with AAPL now trading at 161.43/46. The fact that this AM's new reaction low at 160.07 WAS CONFIRMED by my 4-hour Momentum gauge suggests strongly that AAPL has more work to do on the downside prior to putting in a significant exhaustion low. My two lower price targets are 158.00 and if violated and sustained, then in the vicinity of 152.50."
AAPL spent the remainder of last week under pressure, right into Friday's session, when Mike posted the following alert to MPTrader members:
"As is my custom at potentially important market inflection points, I closely watch my setup work in AAPL for hints about directional pressure. At the moment, AAPL's rally off of yesterday's (Thursday's) low at 154.67-- after a 12.2% correction from its 8/17 high at 176.15-- exhibits bullish "microform," and as such, is set up for upside continuation to challenge its 200 DMA, now at 161.06. As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above yesterday's low at 154.67, I am expecting AAPL to thrust to test and hurdle the 200 DMA on a closing basis, which will be a very promising sign that yesterday's turn has technical significance."
AAPL, trading at 158.20 at the time, went on to probe the 154.30/65 low zone on Thursday and Friday, a full 6.3% below its price at Mike's August 26 alert, bouncing from there as Mike had expected, closing the week at 155.81.
Mike's work on AAPL as well as on many other individual stocks, macro indices, commodities, and Bitcoin served to guide MPTrader members during a very turbulent week, enabling them to recalibrate their risk management parameters.
"Just want to say thank you very much for your charts and insight on the markets and specific stocks," one member ("AB0616") wrote on Friday.
What's next for AAPL? And how might it impact the direction of the market, especially considering that AAPL is holding its annual Special Event Day on Wednesday (9/07), where the company is expected to unveil its iPhone 14? Will the "event" disappoint, or will it contain some unexpected positive surprises from CEO Tim Cook?
Mike and MPTrader members will be watching and discussing AAPL constantly because in all likelihood the behavior of the stock will provide valuable and actionable clues about the next meaningful directional move for AAPL.