NVDA Follows My Optimal Technical Price Path. What's Next?
by Mike Paulenoff
October 13, 2024 • 12:18 PM EDT
Over one month ago, on Monday morning, 9/09/24, I posted the following NVDA update for our members:
My near-term pattern work makes a compelling argument that the corrective downleg from the 8/16 high at 131 is nearing downside exhaustion and completion in and around 100 (Friday's low was 100.95). That said, unless and until NVDA climbs above 106.30 to 108.90 to trigger an upside reversal signal in my work, I cannot rule out another loop down to retest 100-101, and, if violated, into new corrective low territory at 95-97, the next lower Target Window from where my work expects a potent upside reversal signal... Last is 106.40...
During the subsequent three sessions after issuing a technical heads-up to our members, NVDA climbed above 108.90, triggering an upside reversal signal in my work, and thereafter, followed through to a close at 117.07 on 9/11/24.
The early September upside reversal signal proved very rewarding for MPTrader NVDA participants.
Fast-forward to last week's (Friday's) action and 29 subsequent updates from my 9/09/24 heads-up designed to help members navigate the price swings in NVDA, the stock hit a high at 135.78, representing a 28% advance from 9/09/24.
With NVDA sitting 5.4% from its all-time high of 141.60 (6/20/24) and earnings six weeks away (11/27/24), what is the most likely price path for the stock? Can NVDA climb and sustain new all-time highs above 141.60 before its next earnings report, or does it need another bullish catalyst to propel it sustainably higher?
Join MPTrader members and me ASAP for our frequent analysis and discussions of NVDA in the upcoming days, as well as their technical and fundamental discussions about many individual stocks, sector ETFs, macro indices, precious metals, crude oil, and Bitcoin...
Last Wednesday afternoon (6/11/25), with META circling 700 after establishing a 4-month new post-April 2025 recovery rally high at 708.87, this is what we discussed about the current technical setup: Just a heads up that my pattern work is warning me that the 52% upmove from the 4/07 low at 467.31 to today's (6/11) high at 708.87 has the right look of a completed, overextended, overbought, unconfirmed rally peak that leaves the price structure vulnerable to a correction of some magnitude.
On May 6, 2025, during the final hour of trading, and before AMD was scheduled to report quarterly Earnings that evening, I posted the following analysis to our MPTrader Discussion Room:AMD reports Earnings after the close... The only conviction I can derive from my pattern work is that the 4/08/25 low at 76.48, which represented a 66% correction from the March 2024 high at 227.30, has the right look of a significant low that completed a major bear phase.
On April 22, 2025, I posted the following analysis about my technical setup work in XBI (SPDR SP Biotech ETF):XBI (SPDR SP Biotech ETF)-- Could it be? Could it be that the near-40% correction from the 11/11/24 multi-year high at 105.47 to the 4/09/25 low at 66.66 fully discounted all the bad news in this sector? From a BIG Picture perspective, my attached Daily Chart shows this month's spike low into the vicinity of the previous major corrective low-zone starting in May 2022.
In the early afternoon on April 11, this was my note to our members:"IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF)-- From a trading perspective, anyone who is in sync with the Bitcoin setup might consider owning IBIT (iShares Bitcoin ETF) against a stop below its 4/07/25 low at 42.98 (see my attached Daily Chart below)...
Last Thursday (4/17/25) afternoon, ahead of NFLX (Netflix) post-close earnings report and the three-day Good Friday holiday weekend, we discussed the technical setup and whether or not the NFLX pattern was positioned to react positively to the news : The NFLX setup heading into Earnings later today is favorable for upside continuation above the prior two rally highs at 993.45 (4/15) and 998.70 (3/25), but not to a new ATH above 1064.