NVDA Has Arrived at Mike's Technical Inflection Point
by Mike Paulenoff
October 22, 2023 • 12:44 PM EDT
On September 28, 2023, with NVDA trading at 429.31, I told MPTrader members that my work is warning me about a complex technical setup that argues for a prolonged corrective scenario prior to a resumption of dominant uptrend strength. I posted the following:
My near-term pattern and momentum work argue that since its 9/21/23 corrective low at 409.80 off of its spike to All-Time New Highs at 520 in reaction to earnings on 8/24/23, NVDA is in the grasp of a recovery rally effort that when exhausted, will roll over into another downleg within a larger, still incomplete correction off of the 520 high. For the time being, I am expecting NVDA to claw its way to 436-444 resistance, which is the first zone from where a downside reversal could emerge. If 444 is hurdled and sustained, however, then the counter-trend rally effort will point still higher, into the 460 to 480 target zone prior to my pattern expectation for a powerful downside reversal... Last is 429.31...
Fast-forward across multiple subsequent NVDA updates and discussions in the MPTrader chat room, we see on my attached 4-hour Candle Chart, that NVDA proceeded to follow my preferred recovery rally price path from his 9/28 update price of 429.31 to a 10/12 rally peak at 476.09-- near the top of my peak pivot zone of 460 to 480, from where NVDA turned down into a relentless decline that as we speak, is testing key June-September low-zone support from 396 to 410.
NVDA now finds itself at a consequential technical inflection plateau the resolution of which will determine the direction of the next 25% price move. What forthcoming clues will NVDA provide for me and our members that its directional bias is tilting in one direction or the other in the hours and days directly ahead?
Join me and MPTrader members ASAP-- especially during an earnings season overlaid by heightened and fluid geopolitical risks-- for our pertinent intraday discussions and chart analyses of NVDA, as well as for many other individual stocks, sector ETFs, macro indices, interest rates, commodities, and Bitcoin...
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts
on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including
international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
Good Sunday Afternoon, MPTraders! Last Thursday afternoon, ahead of AAPL's Earnings, this is what we discussed about the stock's probable price path in reaction to the news:Unless AAPL produces something extraordinary, or otherwise announces some unknown bullish catalyst, my pattern work has a very difficult time expecting anything other than a "best-case" sell-the-news scenario in reaction to Earnings. I can make a compelling argument that the upleg from the 6/26/26 low at 273.33 to the 7/29/26 ATH at 344.
XOM (Exxon Mobil)-- Back on May 19, 2026, a fellow MPTrader member requested an update on XOM. This is what we discussed at that time:My attached Daily Chart setup shows my preferred scenario calling for a near-term peak of the current upmove from the 4/17 low at 141.97 to a target zone from 162 to 165, followed by a rollover and press lower that revisits and possibly breaks the 41/7 low, which also will complete the larger corrective process from the 3/30/26 ATH at 176.41.
Pharma Update: MRK and LLYOn Wednesday (6/24/26), this is what we discussed about MRK:MRK as well, which we see on my attached Daily Chart exhbits a VERY BULLISH technical setup-- quite the opposite of beleaguered PFE. My pattern work argues that all of the price action from the 2/25/26 high at 125.14 represents a high-level bullish digestion period and pattern atop the major upleg from the May 2025 low at 73.31.
On January 2, 2026, this is what I posted about CAVA (Cava Group Casual Mediterranean Cuisine) to MPTrader members:After CAVA's meteoric climb from 29.00 in October 2023 to an ATH at 172.65 in November 2024, the stock rolled over into a relentless decline that hit its low at 43.
On the morning of April 9, 2026, this is what I posted about SMR (NuScale Power Corp) to our Discussion Room for MPTrader members:SMR (Nuscale Power Corp)-- Three views of this beleaguered, former high-flying modular nuclear power producer that has been in the grasp of a relentless six-month, 84% bear phase:-- From the perspective of my 4-hour Chart, SMR has the right look of nearing the completion of the downleg that started at the Jan. 2026 recovery rally high of 22.