Navigating Facebook's Precarious Technical Setup
by Mike Paulenoff
December 27, 2020 • 12:00 AM EST
During late November into early December, Mike Paulenoff became increasingly concerned about the price behavior of Facebook (FB).
The stock not only was grossly underperforming the NDX but also was in the news constantly in an unflattering light regarding its leader, Mark Zuckerberg, and censorship accusations. Since early November, the NDX is up about 10%, while FB is unchanged.
More recently, on the morning of Dec 15, Mike alerted MPTrader members to the precarious technical setup in FB, writing: "FB is pressing on key nearest support at 269-270, which if violated and sustained will point to a confrontation with more consequential support at 264.50-265.00."
This past Tuesday FB got down to that very support level, reaching a low of 264.63.
In his Dec 15 alert, Mike had noted that a break below that level would trigger downside projections to 248-244. He continues to maintain that FB, which closed pre-Christmas at 267.01, must contain any forthcoming weakness to avert a technical break that has the potential to morph all of the price action since mid-August into a consequential top formation.
On the other hand, perhaps bullish seasonal expectations into year-end will put a floor under FB into early January? Keep an eye on resistance at 280.50, above which FB's downside technical set-up could be neutralized.
Join Mike and our MPTrader members as they navigate the twists and turns of FB, and many other stocks, ETF, indices, and commodity markets into year-end and as we enter 2021.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
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More Top Calls From Mike
Last Wednesday afternoon (Jan 13), with the IWM at 210.76, Mike Paulenoff told MPTrader members:
"The Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF is just about 0.5% off of its all time high. As long as any weakness is contained above 204.30, my near-term pattern set up from the 1/04 pullback low at 190.94 is poised for still higher ATHs above 211.73."
The IWM reached a high of 215 the very next day.
Back on Dec 2, after salesforce.com (CRM) reported strong earnings but price languished, Mike Paulenoff told MPTrader members:
"Weakness in reaction to the news has violated the prior significant near term pivot low at 228.66 (10/30), triggering the Bearish Scenario (Red line) that calls for a deeper correction that projects into the 220 area next, and if violated, to the 205 - 200 target zone.
On the evening of November 30, after Zoom Video Communications (ZM) reported earnings, Mike Paulenoff cautioned MPTrader members about the stock;
"My pattern work argues that ZM started a major correction off of its 10/20 all-time high of 588.54 into the 11/10 low at 366.28. The rally from the 11/10 low at 366.28 to today's high at 487.79 (+33%) to my mind represents an intervening recovery bounce prior to a second bout of weakness that completes the larger corrective process.
On Tuesday morning, December 8, with AAPL trading in pre-market action at 124.64, Mike Paulenoff told MPTrader members to watch for more upside:
"AAPL is following a similar, if less exciting post-coil breakout price path than did TSLA one month ago. My attached 4-hour chart shows that since the end of the Sep-Nov coil formation at 112.59 on 11/24, AAPL has stair-stepped to the upside to this AM's pre-open high at 124.96 (+11% so far), in route to a challenge of the 11/09 rally high at 127.
Early on December 3, after Goldman Sachs upgraded TSLA to Buy from Neutral and raised its 12-month target price 780, a full 31% from its then price of 592, Mike Paulenoff wrote MPTrader members:
"I wonder whether or not its (Goldman Sachs) newfound bullishness is a contrary indication, like putting a bull on the cover of Barron's or Time magazine? As for the technical set up in TSLA, my attached chart work argues for a new all time high above 607.
