Near-Vertical Price Path By FCX Since Our Alert
by Mike Paulenoff
April 16, 2023 • 1:16 PM EDT
On March 20, I posted the following technical alert to MPTrader members:
"FCX (Freeport-McMoRan)-- Technically, let's notice that FCX appears to be in the U-Turn phase after the completion of a 7-week 25% corrective period that successfully tested the 200 DMA last week. If the commodity complex has fully corrected its post-pandemic-inflationary spiral bull phase (think Crude Oil, down 46% from its 2022 highs), then FCX with its concentration of Copper, Gold, Silver, and Oil is poised for a resurgence of strength... As long as any forthcoming weakness is contained above the 200 DMA (35.12), I am expecting the price structure to challenge key near-term resistance from 39 to 41, where the developing rally pattern will inform us if FCX is in the grasp of a budding new upleg... Last is 37.51..."
Since the alert, FCX went on to climb to a high at 43.46 this past Friday (April 14), a full 15.9% above the level it was trading at when we first alerted MPTrader members, and nearly 25% above its March pivot low at 34.88. See our daily chart below, which shows the near-vertical price path taken by FCX since the update.
Along the way, I posted a half dozen follow-up posts about the upside technical progress of FCX, as well as alerting members to supportive fundamental factors that could provide a compelling background story for a bullish period for the copper market in particular, and for the industrial metals in general. These factors include the demand implications of the re-open of the post-Covid China economy, the relative supply differential of copper globally, underinvestment (Cap-Ex) of the global mining business in new mining ventures, and potentially game-changing demand for copper required to ramp-up the manufacture of EVs around the world.
Indeed, FCX could well be in the sweet spot of a budding bull market for months or years to come.
What's next for FCX ahead of a possible pause in the global rate hike cycle, and especially heading into FCX earnings this coming Friday, April 21?
Join me and our MPTrader member community this week for our constant intraday discussions about the technical and fundamental (macro) setups for FCX as well as for many individual stocks, macro indices, ETFs, commodities, precious metals, and Bitcoin.
On March 13, amid a broad discussion about the emerging bull phase developing in the precious metals and miners, Mike Paulenoff posted this about WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals) to our MPTrader discussion room:From a more Silver-Gold perspective (if FCX is perceived to be Copper-centric), let's notice that WPM strength is pushing up against its near-term resistance line in the vicinity of 45.
Right after the opening bell on the morning of October 20, 2023, Mike Paulenoff posted the following GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) commentary to our MPTrader Discussion Room:"For all of the long-suffering Gold Bugs... As we speak, GLD is attempting to take out key 5-month resistance lodged between 181.20 and 184.40, which if successful and sustained, will point GLD to 188-190 next... Last is 183.88...
During the afternoon session of February 15, this is what Mike Paulenoff posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room about the technical setup in the oil service company SLB (Schlumberger):"This name in the oil service sector exhibits a well-demarcated 4-year bullish channel with the SLB price structure upturning off of the lower boundary line in the vicinity of 47.00 (the 2/13/24 low) amid a glaring double non-confirmation of the weakness into the lower channel line.
On December 26, 2023, fellow MPTrader member FJB asked me the following question: Mike - do you feel comfortable giving some of your top sectors for next year if you have any? This was my response:In order of preference based on my technical setup work:1- XLV (Healthcare)2- XLB (Materials)3- XLE (Energy)4- XLI (Industrials)5- XLF (Financials)As of the close this past Friday, 3/15/24, YTD results showed XLV +6.58%, XLB +6.15%, XLI +7.06%, XLF +8.54%, and XLE (Energy) leading all sectors, at +9.27%.
On February 23, Mike Paulenoff posted the following timely commentary about the bond market to MPTrader members:"Benchmark 10-year YIELD and TLT (20+ Year T-bond ETF)-- I am getting initial, but very strong technical signals that the backup in 10-year YIELD from the late-March low at 3.78% to yesterday's (2/22/24) high at 4.35% is nearing exhaustion ahead of a rollover into another downleg within the larger downleg off of the October 2023 high at 5.00% (see my attached Daily Chart).