Our Post-EPS Scenario for AMZN Turns Out Correct
by Mike Paulenoff
July 25, 2014 • 12:00 AM EDT
On Wednesday, we noted Amazon (AMZN) was vulnerable to serious weakness, and we all know what happened after it reported earnings Thursday evening.
Here’s what we wrote: “As AMZN approaching earnings Thursday evening, it is up against some serious technical challenges. Let’s notice that the post-May advance has retraced exactly 62% of the Jan-May correction, which means that 360-365 represents stiff resistance to any further strength. That said, at yesterday’s high of 362.93, AMZN had climbed 28% off its May low in a pattern that exhibits recovery recovery rather than ‘new up leg’ form.
“If my pattern analysis proves reasonably accurate, then AMZN in fact is nearing the completion of a three-month recovery rally in an incomplete larger, still-developing intermediate-term correction off its January 2014 all-time high at 408.65, ahead of another down-leg that should revisit and likely break below 284.38 in the weeks/months ahead.
“At this juncture, only a positive and sustained reaction to EPS that hurdles 365 will argue for a run at 380 next. Any other post-EPS scenario will leave AMZN vulnerable to serious weakness.”
Amazon closed the week at 324.01, down 34.60, or nearly 10%.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts
on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including
international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
On January 2, 2026, this is what I posted about CAVA (Cava Group Casual Mediterranean Cuisine) to MPTrader members:After CAVA's meteoric climb from 29.00 in October 2023 to an ATH at 172.65 in November 2024, the stock rolled over into a relentless decline that hit its low at 43.
On the morning of April 9, 2026, this is what I posted about SMR (NuScale Power Corp) to our Discussion Room for MPTrader members:SMR (Nuscale Power Corp)-- Three views of this beleaguered, former high-flying modular nuclear power producer that has been in the grasp of a relentless six-month, 84% bear phase:-- From the perspective of my 4-hour Chart, SMR has the right look of nearing the completion of the downleg that started at the Jan. 2026 recovery rally high of 22.
On the morning of April 7, 2026, this is what I posted for MPTrader members about my interpretation of the near-term technical setup exhibited by META:My preferred technical scenario for META argues that the stock established a significant near-term low at 520.00 on 3/27/26 that resides within an August 2025 to March 2026, incomplete larger corrective process.
Thirty minutes after the opening bell on November 24, 2025, I posted the following heads-up to MPTrader members about the technical setup in META:META has the right technical look of a significant U-Turn to the upside after completing a 27% August-November correction from 796.25 (8/15/25) to 580.32 (11/21/25)... To gain more powerful upside traction, META needs to climb and sustain above nearest-term resistance at 614.70 to 616.50, which if (when) taken out, will open a higher price pathway to the 670 area to challenge the down-sloping 200 DMA... Last is 609.27...
Last Friday morning, to calm frazzled nerves amid a 1% pre-market plunge that was threatening to complete a 100% give back of the prior week's 3.
