Our Post-EPS Scenario for AMZN Turns Out Correct
by Mike Paulenoff
July 25, 2014 • 12:00 AM EDT
On Wednesday, we noted Amazon (AMZN) was vulnerable to serious weakness, and we all know what happened after it reported earnings Thursday evening.
Here’s what we wrote: “As AMZN approaching earnings Thursday evening, it is up against some serious technical challenges. Let’s notice that the post-May advance has retraced exactly 62% of the Jan-May correction, which means that 360-365 represents stiff resistance to any further strength. That said, at yesterday’s high of 362.93, AMZN had climbed 28% off its May low in a pattern that exhibits recovery recovery rather than ‘new up leg’ form.
“If my pattern analysis proves reasonably accurate, then AMZN in fact is nearing the completion of a three-month recovery rally in an incomplete larger, still-developing intermediate-term correction off its January 2014 all-time high at 408.65, ahead of another down-leg that should revisit and likely break below 284.38 in the weeks/months ahead.
“At this juncture, only a positive and sustained reaction to EPS that hurdles 365 will argue for a run at 380 next. Any other post-EPS scenario will leave AMZN vulnerable to serious weakness.”
Amazon closed the week at 324.01, down 34.60, or nearly 10%.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
Last Wednesday afternoon (6/11/25), with META circling 700 after establishing a 4-month new post-April 2025 recovery rally high at 708.87, this is what we discussed about the current technical setup: Just a heads up that my pattern work is warning me that the 52% upmove from the 4/07 low at 467.31 to today's (6/11) high at 708.87 has the right look of a completed, overextended, overbought, unconfirmed rally peak that leaves the price structure vulnerable to a correction of some magnitude.
On May 6, 2025, during the final hour of trading, and before AMD was scheduled to report quarterly Earnings that evening, I posted the following analysis to our MPTrader Discussion Room:AMD reports Earnings after the close... The only conviction I can derive from my pattern work is that the 4/08/25 low at 76.48, which represented a 66% correction from the March 2024 high at 227.30, has the right look of a significant low that completed a major bear phase.
On April 22, 2025, I posted the following analysis about my technical setup work in XBI (SPDR SP Biotech ETF):XBI (SPDR SP Biotech ETF)-- Could it be? Could it be that the near-40% correction from the 11/11/24 multi-year high at 105.47 to the 4/09/25 low at 66.66 fully discounted all the bad news in this sector? From a BIG Picture perspective, my attached Daily Chart shows this month's spike low into the vicinity of the previous major corrective low-zone starting in May 2022.
In the early afternoon on April 11, this was my note to our members:"IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF)-- From a trading perspective, anyone who is in sync with the Bitcoin setup might consider owning IBIT (iShares Bitcoin ETF) against a stop below its 4/07/25 low at 42.98 (see my attached Daily Chart below)...
Last Thursday (4/17/25) afternoon, ahead of NFLX (Netflix) post-close earnings report and the three-day Good Friday holiday weekend, we discussed the technical setup and whether or not the NFLX pattern was positioned to react positively to the news : The NFLX setup heading into Earnings later today is favorable for upside continuation above the prior two rally highs at 993.45 (4/15) and 998.70 (3/25), but not to a new ATH above 1064.
