Our Post-EPS Scenario for AMZN Turns Out Correct
by Mike Paulenoff
July 25, 2014 • 12:00 AM EDT
On Wednesday, we noted Amazon (AMZN) was vulnerable to serious weakness, and we all know what happened after it reported earnings Thursday evening.
Here’s what we wrote: “As AMZN approaching earnings Thursday evening, it is up against some serious technical challenges. Let’s notice that the post-May advance has retraced exactly 62% of the Jan-May correction, which means that 360-365 represents stiff resistance to any further strength. That said, at yesterday’s high of 362.93, AMZN had climbed 28% off its May low in a pattern that exhibits recovery recovery rather than ‘new up leg’ form.
“If my pattern analysis proves reasonably accurate, then AMZN in fact is nearing the completion of a three-month recovery rally in an incomplete larger, still-developing intermediate-term correction off its January 2014 all-time high at 408.65, ahead of another down-leg that should revisit and likely break below 284.38 in the weeks/months ahead.
“At this juncture, only a positive and sustained reaction to EPS that hurdles 365 will argue for a run at 380 next. Any other post-EPS scenario will leave AMZN vulnerable to serious weakness.”
Amazon closed the week at 324.01, down 34.60, or nearly 10%.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
On April 5, Mike Paulenoff discussed the following with MPTrader members about the significant negative behavior of the equity indices in general and the SPY (SP 500 Equity Index ETF), writing:"... Yesterday's nosedive in the price action left behind a Bearish Engulfing Candle in SPY, SPX, ES, et al... My attached Big Picture Chart of SPY shows the powerful, relentless Oct-Apr. advance from 409.21 to 526.
On March 13, amid a broad discussion about the emerging bull phase developing in the precious metals and miners, Mike Paulenoff posted this about WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals) to our MPTrader discussion room:From a more Silver-Gold perspective (if FCX is perceived to be Copper-centric), let's notice that WPM strength is pushing up against its near-term resistance line in the vicinity of 45.
Right after the opening bell on the morning of October 20, 2023, Mike Paulenoff posted the following GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) commentary to our MPTrader Discussion Room:"For all of the long-suffering Gold Bugs... As we speak, GLD is attempting to take out key 5-month resistance lodged between 181.20 and 184.40, which if successful and sustained, will point GLD to 188-190 next... Last is 183.88...
During the afternoon session of February 15, this is what Mike Paulenoff posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room about the technical setup in the oil service company SLB (Schlumberger):"This name in the oil service sector exhibits a well-demarcated 4-year bullish channel with the SLB price structure upturning off of the lower boundary line in the vicinity of 47.00 (the 2/13/24 low) amid a glaring double non-confirmation of the weakness into the lower channel line.
On December 26, 2023, fellow MPTrader member FJB asked me the following question: Mike - do you feel comfortable giving some of your top sectors for next year if you have any? This was my response:In order of preference based on my technical setup work:1- XLV (Healthcare)2- XLB (Materials)3- XLE (Energy)4- XLI (Industrials)5- XLF (Financials)As of the close this past Friday, 3/15/24, YTD results showed XLV +6.58%, XLB +6.15%, XLI +7.06%, XLF +8.54%, and XLE (Energy) leading all sectors, at +9.27%.
