Out Front Of HD's Price Reversal
by Mike Paulenoff
May 23, 2021 • 10:54 AM EDT
After Home Depot (HD) announced earnings on Tuesday that beat the Street on most of the important metrics, goosing the stock to the 327.25 area, Mike Paulenoff cautioned MPTrader members.
He briefly discussed HD's near-term technical set up, which looked promising as long as HD held support above 315.21, but then added:
"From a Bigger Picture perspective, my work presents some less promising prospects for HD's potential upside price path. Let's notice on my attached Daily Chart that the last time HD's Price AND Momentum hit confirming new highs was on April 16th. The subsequent new ATH in price at 345.69 on May 10th was NOT CONFIRMED by Daily Momentum, and as such, represents a glaring non-confirmation that serves as a warning signal to anyone who is camped-out in an entrenched long position -- that the power driving HD higher has dissipated, and continues to dissipate as price moves higher."
Later that day, HD reversed sharply, closing lower on the session, injecting serious negativity into Mike's near and intermediate technical work.
The poor performance of HD's stock did not go unnoticed by HD management. On Thursday afternoon after the close (at 315.90), HD "surprised" The Street by authorizing a new $20 billion share repurchase program.
On Friday, after popping higher to 319.28, HD closed the session lower, at 315.77, despite the influence of Tuesday's strong earnings report and Thursday's stock buyback announcement.
HD's poor stock performance certainly appears to be reflecting Mike's problematic "bigger picture" technical set-up.
What's next for the price of HD? Will it continue to hold above its 50 DMA (now at 313.80)? If not, to what target zones does Mike's work project weakness? Will HD weakness weigh on overall market direction?
Join Mike and MPTrader members for discussions about HD, as well as many individual stocks, ETFs, macro indices, cryptos, and commodities.
On May 25, Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader members to a preliminary upside reversal signal in F (Ford). The stock at the time was trading at 12.40, up from its then multi-month corrective low at 12.07 established on May 20.
Mike instructed members that only a close below 11.00 would invalidate his preliminary bullish signal.
Back on July 5, Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader members to the bullish potential in MRNAs chart.
With the stock trading at 154.68, he showed the charts projection towards resistance at the March 22 high of 188.33, writing: Just maybe, the 6 month base-accumulation period and pattern carved out by MRNA during 2022 after a wicked corrective-bear phase is starting to make its presence felt technically.
Back on July 17, with ARKK trading at 44.22, Mike Paulenoff commented:
ARKK (Cathie Wood ARK Innovation Fund) ... my attached 4 Hour Chart shows the price structure has carved out a May-July Rounded Bottom formation that is putting upward pressure on a key resistance zone from 46.70 to 48.12, and if hurdled, will trigger upside projections to 58-60...
Since then ARKK in fact climbed to a new 7-week recovery high at 49.
Back on Thursday, July 7, 2022, this is what Mike Paulenoff discussed with MPTrader members about the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK):
Its Time to take a look at the technical setup in ARKK, putting aside the miserable narrative that surrounds ARK fund manager Cathie Woods performance from the February 2021 ATH at 159.70 to the May 2022 low at 35.10 (-78%).
Back on the afternoon of June 30, just ahead of the long July 4th holiday weekend, Mike Paulenoff posted to the MPTrader.com Coverage List the following chart-based commentary about a forthcoming directional price move in the SPY (SPDR SP 500 ETF Trust), which was trading at 379.38 at the time:
From the perspective of my Hourly SPY setup, todays low at 372.56 followed by the powerful rally to an intraday high at 380.
