Precarious Technical Setups In Financials
by Mike Paulenoff
March 18, 2023 • 8:22 AM EDT
XLF (SPDR Financials ETF)-- During Friday's session we discussed the precarious technical setup exhibited by the Weekly XLF Chart, specifically the prospect of a weekly closing violation of the dominant up trendline from the March 2020 Pandemic Low. My attached Weekly Chart shows that XLF closed the week at 30.98, down 2%, well beneath the trendline. in addition, given the sharp negatively-sloped Weekly Momentum gauges (bottom of the chart), XLF is poised for downside continuation to test the October 2022 pivot low at 29.59 residing 4.2% below Friday's close, which MUST contain forthcoming weakness to avert triggering a new, intermediate-term downside target zone in the vicinity of 25 to 26...
JPM (JPMorgan Chase & Co)-- In a related technical setup in the financials, Friday, we also discussed the precarious technical setup in JPM as stock price weakness probed and tested the 200 DMA at 125.29 (see my attached Daily Chart below). JPM managed to close at 125.81, preserving its positive juxtaposition with the 200 DMA, for the time being. Monday will be another important session for JPM if the stock either successfully tests and lifts off from the 200 DMA, or breaks below the 200 DMA. Both scenarios will have a meaningful impact on the price behavior of the XLF (JPM represents 11% of the XLF)...
I will continue to watch and post my work on the banks Monday morning into and immediately after Wednesday's increasingly critical FOMC Meeting and Powell press conference. If XLF is pressing toward a test of its October 2022 pivot low, and JPM is trading below its 200 DMA along the way, the larger equity indices (especially the SPX) likely will be under pressure as well.
Join us at MPTrader for our ongoing discussions about financials and many other individual equity names, ETFs, Macro Indices and ETFs, Commodities, Precious Metals, and Bitcoin.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
In the early afternoon on April 11, this was my note to our members:"IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF)-- From a trading perspective, anyone who is in sync with the Bitcoin setup might consider owning IBIT (iShares Bitcoin ETF) against a stop below its 4/07/25 low at 42.98 (see my attached Daily Chart below)...
Last Thursday (4/17/25) afternoon, ahead of NFLX (Netflix) post-close earnings report and the three-day Good Friday holiday weekend, we discussed the technical setup and whether or not the NFLX pattern was positioned to react positively to the news : The NFLX setup heading into Earnings later today is favorable for upside continuation above the prior two rally highs at 993.45 (4/15) and 998.70 (3/25), but not to a new ATH above 1064.
Last Thursday afternoon (4/10/25), the commentary below is what I discussed with MPTrader members about my Big Picture technical setup work: Tomorrow is the final session of the week. We get some big bank Earnings and PPI before the open, and more than likely, one or more POTUS televised events that undoubtedly will move markets one way or other. Technically, tomorrow's (Friday) close will be important to my Weekly Chart Work.
At the beginning of last week, fellow members Rayray and GordonGekko asked for my technical setup work on BX (Blackstone Inc). This is what we discussed on the morning of March 25, 2025:My attached Daily Chart shows the November 2024 to mid-March 2025 correction (-32%) followed by the recovery rally from 135.60 to 153.18.
On March 10, 2025, fifteen minutes before the closing bell and Oracle's forthcoming Earnings Report, below was the analysis I posted to the MPTrader Discussion Room about ORCL:"... My preferred scenario indicates a negative reaction to the news that sends ORCL reeling to test important support at 139.50-141.20-- where ORCL MUST reverse to the upside to avert triggering still lower projections into the 118-123 (back the truck up) target window... Last is 149.32"...