Way back on October 27, 2022— 1 year, 4 months ago, this is what I posted about SHOP (Shopify) to the MPTrader member discussion room:
My attached BIG Picture Daily Chart shows the relentless bear phase that gripped the stock from its November 2021 ATH at 176.29 to the October 13, 2022 low at 23.63, amounting to an 86.5% decline in the value of the stock during the past year! That said, my pattern and momentum work argue strongly that SHOP established a very significant near and intermediate-term low at 23.63 on 10/13/22, and that the upmove into today's EPS-aided pop to 34.60 is the initiation of a "rehabilitation period" for the stock, especially if it can climb and sustain above 36 in the hours ahead, which will trigger projections into the 43 to 46 target zone thereafter… Furthermore, I commented that “… SHOP is in the process of creating a potentially combustible upmove in the days/weeks directly ahead… A close above 36 will confirm near-term upside reversal signals that point to 43 to 46 within the development of a larger multi-month bottoming period and pattern that will have the potential to propel SHOP toward 80. Last is 33.42…
Fast forward through multiple follow-up posts and commentary to the current timeframe, we see on my attached Daily Chart that after our initial October 27, 2022 discussion SHOP proceeded to climb and climb, and climb some more! SHOP carved out a series of rallies that formed a powerful uptrend pattern that in December 2023 thrust to the upside above multi-month resistance at 70-71, out of a huge accumulation-base chart formation that triggered intermediate-term target potential of 80-85, 100, and 120.
Thus far, since its December 2023 upside breakout SHOP has climbed to a high of 83.58 on 1/29/24, 4), a full 150% above my October 2022 heads-up to MPTrader members.
Hold on though. According to my pattern and momentum setup work, SHOP isn’t done on the upside, not by a long shot! This is what I wrote about SHOP last Thursday (2/01/24):
… As long as this bout of weakness is contained ABOVE the 1/04 low at 70.62, my base-case bullish pattern setup will remain intact, and the next U-Turn to the upside in SHOP will initiate the next upleg from the 1/04 low that will project to 95-100. At the moment, my optimal pullback target zone is 73-74 ahead of the anticipated resumption of strength... Last is 76.33...
As it turned out, SHOP pivoted to the upside off of the 75.82 low last Thursday afternoon, and rocketed to close last week at 82.93 after what has the right look of a completed minor (Fed-induced) pullback ahead of upside continuation toward its intermediate-term Target Windows.
Join Mike and MPTrader members for their ongoing discussions about SHOP as it approaches earnings on February 13, 2024, as well as their intraday dialogue, analysis, and actionable ideas about individual equities, sector ETFs, macro indices, commodities, and Bitcoin…
