What's Next For DIS After Its Expected Pullback?

by Mike Paulenoff

November 29, 2021 • 9:41 AM EST

Back on November 11, after Walt Disney Company (DIS) reported earnings the previous evening, Mike Paulenoff cautioned MPTraders about more downside for the stock:

"DIS disappointed in a big way, sending prices reeling beneath the lower boundary of its 7-month sideways trading range at 167-168, into the 164 area so far, with my optimal next lower target zone from 158 to 151, within which I will be looking for signs of downside exhaustion (last is 164.92/99)..."

Then on November 23, after a period of price weakness, Mike followed up:

"We find DIS just off of its corrective low at 48.80, and at the very lower boundary of my 158 to 151 target zone, but exhibiting a pattern and momentum setup that 'warns us' a potent upside reversal could occur at just about any hour. That said, however, any strength in DIS must claw its way up through 154.25 for my work to trigger a significant upside reversal signal. As long as DIS is trading beneath 154.25 my work cannot rule out another bout of weakness that presses DIS beneath 148.80 towards my next lower target zone of 140 to 142."

Into the end of last week (11/26), DIS continued to press lower, to a post-earnings low at 145.85, a full 28% off of DIS' all-time-high at 302.02 on 3/08/21, and 11.6% beneath Mike's November 11 technical warning to MPTrader members.

What now for DIS? In that, Friday's weakness was partially attributable to the "Nu" Covid scare (Omicron variant), Mike has DIS high on his radar screen because of the company's efforts and anticipated investment in content for its streaming services (Disney+) that might prove to be a boon if the new variant results in another round of "stay-at-home" mandated restrictions.

That said, however, will investors embrace DIS' streaming service? Or will the company's theme parks suffer disproportionately again?

In other words, Mike will be watching DIS closely as a bellwether for signs of investor reaction to forthcoming information about this new variant. A negative reaction has the potential to press DIS towards the 50% support zone of its entire prior bull phase from March 2020 to March 2021, and possibly into the unfilled up-gap left behind during its pandemic bull phase (see attached chart).

Join Mike and mptrader members for upcoming discussions about DIS, many other individual equities, ETFs, macro indices, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and precious metals throughout the trading day.

Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking. Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!

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