Calling Apple's Upside Exhaustion
by Mike Paulenoff
September 12, 2021 • 12:00 AM EDT
In our Top Call article a month ago, we told you about how Mike Paulenoff called AAPL's upside continuation, with the expectation that the stock could extend a little higher before upside exhaustion.
AAPL, indeed, went on to stair-step higher to reach a high of 157.26 high last week, overshooting the upper boundary of Mike's 153-156 projected high-zone by just 0.8%. It then proceeded to initiate the expected bout of weakness that accelerated to the downside this past Friday.
Mike warned MPTrader members again about this potential downside last Thursday morning, with AAPL trading at 155.17, noting: "AAPL remains a primary focus of mine from a technical perspective because my pattern work argues that the most recent upleg from the 8/19 low at 144.24 to Tuesday's (9/07) ATH at 157.26 has the right look of completion."
He specified 153.90 as the support level to watch for a preliminary reversal signal, which AAPL proceeded to violate as it nosedived on Friday. It closed the week right at the low of the day (148.67), a full 5.5% beneath the September 9 new All-Time High, and 3.4% beneath Mike's initial downside trigger level at 153.90, putting an exclamation point on Mike's repeated warnings to MPTrader members about AAPL's vulnerability to a serious downside reversal.
What's next for AAPL and the overall market? Will AAPL head directly for Mike's minimum downside target of 144-145 this week? Join Mike for his intraday alerts at MPTrader, where he posts constant analysis, and where he and our members exchange tactical trading ideas in our Discussion Room.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
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More Top Calls From Mike
On Friday June 17, Mike Paulenoff posted an alert to MPTrader members about an emerging setup in AMZN:
AMZN is one name that pops out at me that should benefit from an initial and sustained correction in traditional energy and transportation costs. AMZN needs to climb above and sustain 110 for my work to generate a more confident technical signal, otherwise, I cannot rule out another loop down that tests and breaks key May-June support at 101.26 to 101.
Last Wednesday, prior to the official FOMC rate hike of 75 bps, Mike Paulenoffwarned MPTrader members about the likelihood of additional weakness in the beleaguered home builders, writing about the ITB (iShares US Home Construction ETF):
In that, neither my pattern work nor my intermediate-term Momentum gauges offer much technical confidence that ITB will be able to carve out a meaningful corrective basing area in and around 53.
Back on May 13, amid a thrust in the price of Crude Oil from $95/bbl to $112/bbl, Mike Paulenoff alerted MPTrader members to an actionable technical setup in energy producer PSX (Phillips 66), writing:
My work has been extremely friendly since the beginning of May, looking for PSX to break out of its 11-month corrective accumulation pattern that will trigger a thrust towards a potential target zone of 110-115.
On Thursday May 19, in the midst of some serious weakness and carnage in the retail sector that had equity market-watchers doubting the resiliency of the almighty US consumer, Mike Paulenoff turned MPTrader members attention to PARA (Paramount Global), writing:
For the past 5 months, we could make the technical argument that PARA has carved out an accumulation-base formation that attracts buyers every time the stock dips beneath 29.00. We can also make the case that every time the stock climbs above 36.
On March 11, with AAPL in a month-long down-leg and trading at 156.34, Mike Paulenoff posted a relatively bullish analysis for MPTrader members, writing:
I am watching AAPL more closely than usual these days, as a bellwether for the health/vulnerability of the overall market.
