Getting Ahead Of Rally In Retail Sector ETF

by Mike Paulenoff
May 15, 2021 • 11:29 AM EDT
This past Friday, 30 minutes before the release of Retail Sales data for April, Mike Paulenoff posted his analysis of XRT, the SPDR S&P Retail Sector ETF.
After explaining in detail his analysis, which you can read here, Mike concluded: "All of the action from the Jan. 28th high at 99.24 through Tuesday's (May 12th) higher pullback low, represents a larger, bullish digestion period and pattern atop the dominant 15 month uptrend. In addition, based on my experience, the Coil type pattern that has been carved out has the requisite number of traverses across the contracting range to be considered complete or nearly complete, which if reasonably accurate, argues for the emergence of a new upleg in the XRT that propels the Retail ETF to new highs above 100, with an outlier upside target zone of 108 to 112."
XRT, trading at 89.56 at the time, proceeded to gap up to 90.60/65 at the open, despite a disappointing Retail Sales report. It clawed its way higher for all of Friday's session, closing at 93.42, a full 4.3% above its pre-market price at Mike's alert, and 3% above its up-gap opening price. This indicated strongly that the bullish pattern described by Mike in his early AM analysis to MPTader members was "calling the shots" for the XRT regardless of the apparent hiccup in April Retail Sales.
Where is XRT headed next? Based on Mike's analysis, XRT hasn't even broken out of its multi-month bullish digestion pattern yet.
Join Mike and our members in our MPTrader room as they analyze, discuss, and project the upcoming price action in XRT, as well as other names, ETFs, macro sector indices and futures, cryptos, commodities, and more.
Mike Paulenoff is the author of MPTrader.com, a real-time diary of his technical analysis & trade alerts on
ETFs for precious metals, energy, currencies, and an array of equity indices and sectors, including international
markets, plus key ETF component stocks in sectors like technology, mining, and banking.
Sign up for a Free 7-day Trial!
More Top Calls From Mike
Every person on the planet is now aware that early on Saturday night, June 21st, 2025, the U.S. military attacked and severely damaged (destroyed?) Iran's nuclear sites and presumably their ability to produce nuclear materials needed to create a WMD.
Last Wednesday afternoon (6/11/25), with META circling 700 after establishing a 4-month new post-April 2025 recovery rally high at 708.87, this is what we discussed about the current technical setup: Just a heads up that my pattern work is warning me that the 52% upmove from the 4/07 low at 467.31 to today's (6/11) high at 708.87 has the right look of a completed, overextended, overbought, unconfirmed rally peak that leaves the price structure vulnerable to a correction of some magnitude.
On May 6, 2025, during the final hour of trading, and before AMD was scheduled to report quarterly Earnings that evening, I posted the following analysis to our MPTrader Discussion Room:AMD reports Earnings after the close... The only conviction I can derive from my pattern work is that the 4/08/25 low at 76.48, which represented a 66% correction from the March 2024 high at 227.30, has the right look of a significant low that completed a major bear phase.
On April 22, 2025, I posted the following analysis about my technical setup work in XBI (SPDR SP Biotech ETF):XBI (SPDR SP Biotech ETF)-- Could it be? Could it be that the near-40% correction from the 11/11/24 multi-year high at 105.47 to the 4/09/25 low at 66.66 fully discounted all the bad news in this sector? From a BIG Picture perspective, my attached Daily Chart shows this month's spike low into the vicinity of the previous major corrective low-zone starting in May 2022.
In the early afternoon on April 11, this was my note to our members:"IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF)-- From a trading perspective, anyone who is in sync with the Bitcoin setup might consider owning IBIT (iShares Bitcoin ETF) against a stop below its 4/07/25 low at 42.98 (see my attached Daily Chart below)...