Highlighting "Fear" In the Bond Market
by Mike Paulenoff
February 28, 2021 • 11:55 AM EST
In it, Mike highlighted the "increasing fear" in the bond market, with longer-term rates projected to continue to rise, and in the "Fear Index" itself, the VIX, suggesting increased risk in the equity markets.
The discussion turned out to be a valuable heads-up to MPTrader members in view of the subsequent dismemberment of the bond market into late last week, when longer-term (10- Year) Yield rapidly backed up to 1.61% from the 1.25% level it was at when Mike first posted his analysis on February 17.
At the same time, the equity markets sold off strongly last week, with the S&P 500 shedding 2.4% and the Nasdaq 100 losing 4.9%.
Mike posted frequent 10-Year YIELD and TLT updates throughout the week, looking for signs of upside exhaustion in Yield and downside exhaustion in the TLT, followed by signs of a countertrend move.
Early Friday morning, Mike wrote:
"Ahead of the trading day, let's address again the elephant in the room, the bond market via my attached 4 hour chart of the TLT, which shows today's pre-market strength into the 140.20 area compared with yesterday's violent, capitulation down-spike to 136.61. During the hours since the spike low, TLT has climbed 2.6%. Let's notice that as of last evening, DSI (Daily Sentiment Index) registered a very bearish and oversold figure of 9, which at the very least is a warning to bond bears that the market could be a bit too comfortable and entrenched on the short side."
What's next for TLT and 10 year Yield? Will the recent behavior of the bond market continue to impact the equity indices?
Join Mike and our members for constant intraday discussion of bond market and index ETFs, individual equities, macro indices and ETFs, commodities, precious metals and miners.
Last Tuesday afternoon, hours before CAVA (Cava Group) was scheduled to report Earnings, this is what I posted for MPTrader members:CAVA reports Earnings after today's close. Approaching the news, CAVA is circling 61, a full 40% beneath its April 2026 high at 98.79, amid an unconfirmed new corrective low at 60.21 yesterday (8/10/26), leaving CAVA positioned for a "buy-the-news" setup (the opposite of a sell-the-news setup in a name that is up 30% to 40% approaching Earnings).
Good Sunday Afternoon, MPTraders! Last Thursday afternoon, ahead of AAPL's Earnings, this is what we discussed about the stock's probable price path in reaction to the news:Unless AAPL produces something extraordinary, or otherwise announces some unknown bullish catalyst, my pattern work has a very difficult time expecting anything other than a "best-case" sell-the-news scenario in reaction to Earnings. I can make a compelling argument that the upleg from the 6/26/26 low at 273.33 to the 7/29/26 ATH at 344.
XOM (Exxon Mobil)-- Back on May 19, 2026, a fellow MPTrader member requested an update on XOM. This is what we discussed at that time:My attached Daily Chart setup shows my preferred scenario calling for a near-term peak of the current upmove from the 4/17 low at 141.97 to a target zone from 162 to 165, followed by a rollover and press lower that revisits and possibly breaks the 41/7 low, which also will complete the larger corrective process from the 3/30/26 ATH at 176.41.
Pharma Update: MRK and LLYOn Wednesday (6/24/26), this is what we discussed about MRK:MRK as well, which we see on my attached Daily Chart exhbits a VERY BULLISH technical setup-- quite the opposite of beleaguered PFE. My pattern work argues that all of the price action from the 2/25/26 high at 125.14 represents a high-level bullish digestion period and pattern atop the major upleg from the May 2025 low at 73.31.
On January 2, 2026, this is what I posted about CAVA (Cava Group Casual Mediterranean Cuisine) to MPTrader members:After CAVA's meteoric climb from 29.00 in October 2023 to an ATH at 172.65 in November 2024, the stock rolled over into a relentless decline that hit its low at 43.
